Brent crude prices fell below $71 per barrel for the third consecutive day on Thursday, amid progress in US-Iran negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and a recovery in oil shipments from the Gulf.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading at $70.76 a barrel, down around 1.13%, as of 17:28 local time (14:28 GMT). That level signaled a return to pre-war prices.
The fall came after a Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Wednesday that the sides had made 'positive progress' in talks focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz in Doha. On the same day, US President Donald Trump told reporters that 'the process of denuclearizing Iran is going well.'
But on Thursday, a threat statement from Iran's joint military command re-escalated tensions. The command announced that ships straying from designated lanes in the Strait of Hormuz would face an 'immediate and coercive response.' The statement, carried on Iran's state television, said: 'Failure to comply with the navigation protocols of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, deviation from the designated route, or disregard for these rules will prompt an immediate and coercive response from the armed forces that endangers the safety of the violating ships.' The reason behind the threat was not immediately clear.
The next round of talks between the US and Iran is expected to take place after the funeral of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which is set to begin on Saturday.
Meanwhile, oil exports from Gulf countries continued to recover in recent days. Saudi Arabia increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz as conditions gradually improved. According to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, four supertankers carrying around 8 million barrels of crude oil sailed from the kingdom's main export terminal at Ras Tanura into the Arabian Sea on Thursday. That was the highest number of supertankers to exit the strait in a single day since a memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) also accelerated exports. According to Kpler ship-tracking data, the country's oil exports exceeded 3.9 million barrels per day in June. The UAE, which left OPEC in May, reached its highest export rate since 2017.
According to a US official who spoke to Bloomberg, total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz rose above 10 million barrels per day. While that figure marks a significant recovery from the lows seen during the conflict, it remains well below the pre-war period when an average of 18-19 million barrels per day transited the waterway.
After the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28, Tehran retaliated against US assets in the region, Israel, and neighboring Gulf states, including their critical energy infrastructure. Iran's Revolutionary Guards also restricted commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway, which carries about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments in peacetime, was almost completely shut down with the start of the war. Fearing supply disruptions, oil prices soared to $115 per barrel in early May.
After Iran and the US signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17 to permanently end the war, shipments through the strait gradually recovered. However, sporadic attacks continue to disrupt maritime traffic despite the ceasefire. The two sides are now engaged in a 60-day intensive negotiation process aimed at fully reopening the strait, halting hostilities, and limiting Tehran's nuclear program.
