Indirect negotiations between Iran and the US held in Doha with the mediation of Qatar and Pakistan resulted in a one-week temporary military truce agreement. According to Lika Mekki, a researcher at the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, the reached agreement serves as a concrete roadmap for the next phase.
The short-term truce also aligns with the domestic agendas of both countries: while the US celebrates the 250th anniversary of its independence, Iran holds mourning ceremonies for its deceased Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. However, the question remains whether this temporary détente is merely a tool to keep tensions under control or a harbinger of a new escalation.
According to Mekki, US special representatives Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff conveyed critical messages to the Iranian side through the Qatari mediator. These messages emphasized that the gains Tehran would obtain from the memorandum of understanding, such as nuclear warheads and oil sales, would far exceed any benefit it could derive from the Strait of Hormuz. Washington also warned that any violation in Hormuz could completely nullify the agreement.
Touching on the financial details, Mekki said the agreement provides for the release of $3 billion to Iran instead of $6 billion. The sum, he added, will be used for purchases and payments through restricted bank accounts, with no cash delivery. He stated that this formula was found acceptable by Iran and does not make Tehran solely dependent on the American market.
At the regional level, Gulf countries have begun working on an initiative regarding the Strait of Hormuz after a 60-day period. It is emphasized that Iran, thanks to the memorandum, has gained the authority to consult with regional countries but reserves the final decision. According to Mekki, the Hormuz and Lebanon files, where Israeli violations continue, will not affect the continuation of negotiations.
Qatari Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari also announced that Witkoff and Kushner were in Doha and held talks with mediators on the implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding.
Meanwhile, Iran expert Mohammed Saleh Sedghian points to legal obstacles and differing positions. He notes that the US administration faces congressional restrictions that prohibit financial transactions and sales with Iran. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharib Abadi also stated that the 60-day period has not yet begun, and that the appropriate conditions are being awaited. While US media report that President Donald Trump is open to extending the period to 90 or 200 days, Iranian officials maintain a cautious and prudent stance.
Middle East policy expert Mahjoub Al-Zuwayri argues that the parties' adopted "strategy of preserving the status quo" slows the negotiation process and keeps alive the risk of returning to conflict. According to Al-Zuwayri, this structural hesitation materializes in the following points:
- US: reluctant to take concrete steps to lift sanctions and to pressure Israel to make progress in southern Lebanon.
- Iran: shows clear hesitation in making definitive decisions regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Al-Zuwayri added that the lack of trust between the parties condemns the negotiations to a "tortoise pace" beyond the 60-day period, and that the strategy of preserving the status quo could blow up the process at any moment, but this would not necessarily lead to an all-out war.
The US and Iran signed an electronic memorandum of understanding on June 17 aimed at ending the war. This memorandum paved the way for second-phase negotiations to reach a final agreement within 60 days.
