The 2017 Korea crisis: the first sign of the 'madman'
In the fall of 2017, former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer complained to then-President Donald Trump that South Korean negotiators were not making concessions. Trump's response was short and clear: 'Tell them the madman in the White House is ready to tear up the deal at any moment.' This incident, reported by Axios, formed the cornerstone of Trump's negotiation strategy.
Nixon's 'madman' legacy
The 'madman' theory emerged in 1969 during the Vietnam War under President Richard Nixon. When negotiations with North Vietnam in Paris stalled, the Nixon team leaked word to the Soviet Union that the president was so angry it was unclear what he might do, and that he might resort to the nuclear option. In fact, in October 1969, nuclear-armed B-52 bombers flew near Soviet airspace as part of a radar deception. This strategy, as recounted in the memoirs of Nixon's Chief of Staff Bob Haldeman, relied on intimidating the adversary with uncertainty.
Trump's difference: 'The Art of the Deal' in play
Trump, however, blended Nixon's tactic with the real estate mogul instincts from his 1987 book 'The Art of the Deal.' In the book, he writes that he 'plays to people's fantasies' and that people admire 'the big, the biggest, the most impressive,' and he sees 'innocent exaggeration' as a legitimate marketing tool. In negotiation, he emphasizes that the worst thing is to show how eager you are, and stresses the power of holding cards that the other side cannot live without.
Cornering NATO, threatening Mexico
As president, Trump applied this approach on a global scale. In his first term, he demanded more defense spending from NATO allies while directly threatening to withdraw from the alliance. In 2019, he threatened Mexico with steep tariffs over migration, forcing it to send tens of thousands of troops to the border within days. In both cases, he created chaos and uncertainty to extract concessions.
The Suleimani decision: the allure of the most extreme option
Trump's 'madman' reflex was most clearly seen in the January 2020 killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. When the Pentagon presented options for responding to the death of an American in Iraq, it had traditionally included the most extreme option—targeting Soleimani—to make the others seem more reasonable. But Trump, to the generals' surprise, chose exactly that option. According to the New York Times, this was intended to signal 'a president who does not adhere to red lines.'
Controlling the state with 'Schedule F'
Having faced bureaucratic resistance in his first term, Trump aimed to establish full control over the federal government in his second term through the 'Schedule F' plan. By making it easier to fire thousands of senior officials, this plan paves the way for him to be even more unpredictable at the negotiating table.
From the Atlantic to the Pacific: China, the new enemy
For Trump, the real rival is China. In his view, NATO is a drain flowing to European 'freeloaders,' while China is a giant factory that takes away American working-class jobs. Instead of multilateral alliances against China, he prefers a direct, head-to-head struggle. With late-night tweets praising China's president and morning tariff hikes, he disrupts supply chains. This tactic of 'weaponizing uncertainty' creates a minefield-like environment for investors.
Iran conflict: a message to both shores
Trump's military moves toward Iran also serve a dual purpose. On one hand, with tension in the Strait of Hormuz, he tells Europe to 'pay your NATO bill or fend for yourselves,' while on the other, he reminds China and India, which import oil from Iran, of their energy dependence. He acts like a merchant who starts a fire and then sells fire extinguishers at triple the price.
