Associate Professor Dr. Erhan Akkaş, a faculty member of the Economics Department at Ankara Social Sciences University, stated that modern wars are now waged over ports, straits and trade corridors, directly targeting global energy and food supply chains.
Akkaş emphasized that the US attacks on Iran and Russia's targeting of Ukraine's Chornomorsk Port have caused simultaneous crises at two vital points of world trade, and these developments have global consequences that transcend regional boundaries.
Strait of Hormuz sees traffic drop, energy and fertilizer cost threat
Pointing to the escalating tension in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which about 35 percent of global crude oil exports, 20 percent of LNG exports and 30 percent of fertilizer trade pass, Akkaş noted that a prolonged disruption there would increase energy and fertilizer costs, negatively impacting agricultural production and raising global food prices.
He reported that due to US-Iran tensions, tanker traffic passing through Hormuz has dropped to its lowest level in the last two months, and many ships have turned off their automatic identification systems for security reasons.
Black Sea grain shipments shrinking
Noting that Russia's missile and drone attacks on grain terminals in the Odessa region carry the potential for a new crisis in global food markets, Akkaş said that after the attacks, the monthly shipment volume through Odessa ports dropped from about 6 million tons to 4 million tons.
Recalling that Ukraine-based Kernel company announced it suspended activities at the port after the attacks, with about 45 thousand tons of wheat and 9 thousand tons of sunflower oil damaged, and loading equipment and storage facilities hit, Akkaş pointed out that Ukraine accounts for 6 percent of global wheat exports and 11 percent of corn exports.
Combined shock to hit Muslim countries too
Akkaş warned that the crises in Hormuz and the Black Sea could combine to create a two-way supply and cost shock in global supply chains. He stated that disruptions in Hormuz raise oil, natural gas and fertilizer costs, while grain shipment disruptions in the Black Sea lead to sudden spikes in food commodity prices.
Akkaş stated that these simultaneous shocks trigger input inflation from energy costs and a contraction in food supply at the same time, strengthening structural cost inflation on a global scale and causing sharp fluctuations in world food price indices. He added that in the coming period, the national security capacity of states will be measured by their ability to protect energy and food supply chains against asymmetric shocks.
Akkaş assessed that a simultaneous prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian ports could lead to a more comprehensive and devastating global food crisis than the 2022 Ukraine food crisis.
