The world is dangerously close to the 1.5°C warming limit set out in the Paris Agreement; a major new report shows that human-caused warming will reach 1.37°C in 2025. According to analysis by more than 70 scientists from 56 institutions across 17 countries, if emissions continue at current levels the 1.5°C threshold will be crossed around 2030.
Published today (11 June) in the journal Earth System Science Data, the fourth edition of the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) tracks the key metrics showing how fast and why the climate is changing. A clear picture emerges: the world is warming at an accelerating pace driven almost entirely by human activity.
"Our work shows that greenhouse gas emissions are at their highest level on record, driven predominantly by the burning of fossil fuels," said Dr. William Lamb, a senior researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany. "The good news is that the solutions are already in our hands.
By investing in renewable energy and electrification, governments can both cut emissions and build cleaner, more reliable and more secure energy systems.
"The world's carbon budget will be exhausted within three yearsThe carbon budget – the total amount of CO2 that can still be released into the atmosphere while keeping warming below 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels – is calculated at just 130 billion tonnes as of the start of 2026. At current emission levels, this budget will be completely exhausted in about three years.
The 1.5-degree limit forms the core pillar of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the international accord designed to avert the most devastating impacts of the climate crisis. Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 56.8 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2024, driven mainly by the burning of fossil fuels.
Atmospheric concentrations of the three main greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – have risen since 2019, with CO2 levels now reaching 425.6 parts per million.
"In short, we are emitting more greenhouse gases than ever before, which is raising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels and trapping ever more heat, throwing the planet's balance off kilter," said Dr. Matt Palmer, a scientist at the UK Met Office.
The report also reveals that the planet's energy imbalance – the gap between incoming heat and heat radiated back into space – has more than doubled in recent decades and now stands at a record high. This means the planet is storing heat faster than at any point since modern measurements began.
"The Earth's energy imbalance is growing rapidly, driving changes across every component of the climate system including ocean and land warming, permafrost thaw, ice loss and sea-level rise," said Dr. Karina Von Schuckmann of the French research institute Mercator Ocean International.
Sea levels are rising, waters are warmingGlobal sea level hit a new record in 2025; the total rise since 1901 has reached 23 centimetres and the rate of increase is accelerating. The oceans absorb the bulk of the excess heat; average sea surface temperatures last year reached the second-highest level ever recorded.
A new indicator added to this year's report reveals the scale of marine heatwaves: the number of affected days more than tripled globally between 1991 and 2025. In 2025 alone, the world experienced 65 days of marine heatwave conditions that damage ecosystems, threaten fish stocks and disrupt the ocean-atmosphere systems that regulate the Earth's climate.
On land, the picture is no different. Average peak land temperatures over the last decade were nearly half a degree higher than the previous decade, driving unprecedented extreme heat events across the globe. "Almost all of the warming over the last decade is due to human activities," said Dr. Samantha Burgess of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
"The impacts on livelihoods and ecosystems are already being felt worldwide and will accelerate as temperatures continue to rise."The scientists behind the report also warn of a less visible risk: the global datasets used to track these changes are themselves under threat.
Budget cuts, including the Trump administration's decision last year to mothball the US State Department's global air quality monitoring programme, are creating dangerous gaps in the evidence base on which climate science and policy rely.
"Without this data, making assessments in the future will be far harder, yet we need urgent climate action more than ever," warned Dr. Chris Smith of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
