The results of the first comprehensive study on how the public views the process following the agreement reached with Iran in the US have been published. The poll reveals striking data on both the course of the war and the future of the agreement, while also shedding light on how the American electorate evaluates developments in recent months.
According to the new poll conducted by CBS News and YouGov, a large majority of Americans support ending the conflict rather than waiting for Iran to make further concessions. However, the same study reveals that the public has serious concerns about the war's outcomes, the Trump administration's strategy, and the long-term effects of the agreement.
Let's take a closer look at the poll results…78 PERCENT OF AMERICANS SHARE THE SAME VIEW According to the poll, 78 percent of respondents support ending the war at its current point, while only 22 percent expressed a preference for continuing the conflict until Iran makes further concessions. This result initially presents a positive picture for the Trump administration.
Administration circles interpret the public's widespread desire to end the war as support for the White House's line. However, when the details of the study are examined, it becomes clear that this support does not stem from satisfaction with the content of the agreement.
For example, when respondents were asked which side the agreement favors, only 22 percent said the agreement is in the US's favor. In contrast, 37 percent of respondents stated that the agreement is more advantageous for Iran. 41 percent of respondents said they believe the agreement is balanced between the parties.
Even among voters of Trump's own party, only 39 percent shared the view that the agreement is more advantageous for the US. This result indicates that even within his own base, the agreement is not seen as a diplomatic victory.
'THE REAL ISSUE FOR THE AMERICAN PUBLIC IS NOT WHO WON OR LOST THE WAR' Evaluating the poll results published in the US, Security and Terrorism Expert and Retired Intelligence Colonel Coskun Basbug said the American public's priority is not the winner or loser of the war. According to Basbug, the main factor determining voter behavior is economic conditions and their impact on daily life.
Stating that the poll results should be read carefully, Basbug said, "These polls certainly give important messages, but I do not think the American people view the issue from the perspective of whether Iran won or whether the US achieved its strategic goals. The priority of the ordinary citizen in the US is not foreign policy but their own economic conditions.
People today look at the money they pay at the market, fuel prices, energy costs, and their living standards. Therefore, they are interested in how much the continuation of the war costs them." Drawing attention to the war's impact on global energy markets, Basbug said, "Every rise in oil prices not only increases fuel costs.
It pushes up prices in a very wide area, from transportation to production, from food to basic consumer goods. The American people are aware of this. Therefore, a significant portion of people do not want the war to continue but want it to end as soon as possible. Because they believe that the normalization of markets, the reduction of price pressure, and economic stability can only be achieved this way.
In short, the citizen's basic expectation is not geopolitical success stories, but a more comfortable life and stronger purchasing power." 'REACTIONS TO ISRAEL HAVE INCREASED BOTH IN THE PUBLIC AND IN POLITICAL CIRCLES' Stating that social reactions towards Israel have also increased recently in the US, Basbug said that its political repercussions are beginning to be seen.
Basbug said, "We see that anti-Israel sentiment and criticism of Israeli policies have increased significantly in the US public opinion recently. This situation was initially seen more in certain segments of society, but it now appears to be starting to reflect on the political arena.
Therefore, it is possible to say that this social change is as influential as economic concerns in the debate between those who want the war to continue and those who want it to end." DOUBTS ABOUT STOPPING IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM In the study, participants were also asked whether the war was strategically successful.
While 45 percent of Americans stated that the war was not a strategic success, only 29 percent said they believed the operations achieved their strategic goals. According to experts, this picture shows that the public is dissatisfied not only with the costs of the war but also with the results achieved.
It is particularly evident that voters have serious doubts about stopping Iran's nuclear program, one of the goals most frequently emphasized by the Trump administration during the conflict. The Trump administration argued throughout the war that its main goal was to permanently stop Iran's nuclear program. However, the CBS poll revealed that a large majority of Americans do not believe this goal will be achieved.
69 percent of respondents think that even if the agreement is finalized, Iran's nuclear program cannot be completely stopped. 45 percent of Republican respondents also stated that they do not believe the agreement will permanently end Iran's nuclear activities. These results align with the findings of another study conducted by Fox News in mid-June.
In that poll, 64 percent of registered voters expressed the view that a potential peace agreement would not prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons in the future. Coskun Basbug stated that Iran's priority in the current process is not political or military but economic gains, and said that after the war ends, the international agenda will refocus on Iran's nuclear program.
Newsletter Subscription Form Reminding that Iran was facing serious internal and external pressures before the war, Basbug said, "At the point we have reached today, we see that Iran is primarily focused on economic gains. Because it should not be forgotten that Iran was going through an extremely critical period before the war started.
Economic troubles were growing within the country, social unrest was increasing, and various discussions about the future of the regime were coming to the fore. There was even a period in some circles where it was discussed that Iran could face internal turmoil, or even a risk of division. However, with the start of the war, all these topics were pushed into the background, and the international agenda was completely moved to a different point.
The nuclear issue is important for Iran. We will see what result comes from the agreement, but it seems Iran will not easily give it up." PESSIMISM ALSO PREVAILS REGARDING IRAN'S REGIONAL INFLUENCE The poll also assessed not only the nuclear program but also Iran's regional influence and future behavior.
According to the results: 1- 68 percent of respondents think the agreement will not prevent Iran from threatening other countries. 2- 48 percent of Republicans share the same view. 3- 79 percent of respondents state that the agreement will not bring the Iranian administration closer to the US. 4- 74 percent think the agreement will not make the Iranian people safer or freer.
These data show that the public believes the agreement can only stop the current conflict but will be insufficient to solve broader geopolitical problems. THE VIEW THAT IRAN HAS NOT WEAKENED IS WIDESPREAD The Trump administration argued throughout the war that Iran's military capacity had been dealt a heavy blow and the country had been significantly weakened. However, the public does not share this assessment.
According to the study, only 37 percent of Americans think Iran has become weaker compared to before the war. While 38 percent of respondents stated that Iran's power has not changed, 25 percent expressed that Iran has become even stronger after the war. In other words, approximately 6 out of every 10 Americans believe Iran has remained at least as strong after the war as it was before.
Experts assess that Iran's continued influence, particularly over the Strait of Hormuz, and its preservation of the capacity to affect global energy markets, are effective in forming this perception. 'THE WAR CREATED MORE PROBLEMS THAN IT SOLVED' One of the striking results of the poll was the assessment of the war's overall balance sheet.
57 percent of respondents said the war created more problems than it solved. In contrast, only 21 percent expressed the view that the war solved more problems than it created. This result reveals that a significant portion of the public believes the strategic and political costs of the conflict are higher than the gains achieved.
"This situation must be evaluated separately for each country," said Coskun Basbug, commenting: -- From Israel's perspective, for example, the war created much bigger problems than expected. Israel became more isolated internationally, and an increase in criticism and tendencies towards exclusion was observed in the US. Therefore, Israel was one of the biggest losers of the war.
When evaluated from Iran's perspective, the process presented a different picture. Instead of deepening its existing problems, the war strengthened Iran's hand in some areas and allowed it to produce solutions to various problems. Therefore, Iran can be seen as one of the sides that gained a certain degree of advantage from the developments. -- From the US perspective, the process brought new problems.
Washington suddenly had to manage the Israel issue more directly and faced the realities in the region. In the end, the US had to complete this process without achieving any concrete gains in the Middle East and by incurring significant economic costs. TRUMP ADMINISTRATION BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN CAUGHT UNPREPARED In the study, voters were also asked whether the Trump administration correctly calculated the economic consequences of the war.
64 percent of respondents stated that they believe the war's impact on the global economy was greater than the administration expected. It is assessed that the economic fluctuations, particularly due to energy prices, global trade routes, and developments in the Strait of Hormuz, have created question marks in the public regarding the administration's crisis planning.
AMERICANS WORRY ABOUT A PROLONGED CONFLICT The Fox News study published in mid-June also revealed voters' discomfort with long-term military engagements. According to the study, 70 percent of registered voters stated they were worried about the war turning into a long-term commitment, while 87 percent said it was important for the US to avoid a prolonged war.
Although the Trump administration initially predicted the conflict could be concluded within four to six weeks, the war continuing for approximately four months is cited among the factors increasing public impatience. Don't Miss Mitsotakis hit by 'Katargate' scandal View the news
