US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will hold talks in Manama, the capital of Bahrain, on the final leg of his Middle East tour. Rubio aims to secure Gulf Arab allies' acceptance of the preliminary agreement with Iran.
Rubio will meet with Bahraini officials on Thursday and then consult with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Manama hosts the headquarters of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet.
Scope of the Gulf tour
Rubio previously held talks in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, seeking to assure them that the proposed deal does not grant excessive concessions to Iran. In Kuwait, he told reporters, "We will not do anything that weakens the security of our long-standing allies in the region."
However, Gulf states fear that any major gains by Tehran could reshape the regional security balance and oil flows. Iran's strikes on some Gulf countries during the US-Israel conflict have heightened these concerns.
Uncertainties over the draft agreement
Although US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Iran has accepted nuclear inspections "forever," Tehran denies making such a concession. Following the first round of talks in Switzerland on Monday, the two sides also made contradictory statements on financial incentives for Iran, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Israel's parallel war in Lebanon.
The draft agreement does not include any limits on Iran's ballistic missiles. It also envisions a $300 billion reconstruction fund and contains clauses that could bolster Tehran's regional influence and its control over critical oil shipping routes.
Gulf allies' reservations
Rubio has said he will not ask regional allies to contribute to the reconstruction fund during his Gulf tour. However, the memorandum of understanding with Iran may require regional countries to bear at least part of the cost.
Some US Gulf allies have privately expressed disappointment with the interim deal, which could pave the way for normalizing relations with the Shiite-majority Iran. Sunni monarchies view Iran as their primary adversary.
In Bahrain specifically, the Shiite-majority population ruled by a Sunni monarchy fears that a financially stronger Tehran could foment unrest in the country.
The six GCC states form the backbone of Washington's security architecture in the Middle East. Any reassessment of their security relationship with the US could significantly impact America's military strategy in the region.
