Chinese leader Xi Jinping traveled to North Korea after nearly seven years. Although the official tone of the visit was "friendship," the real agenda centered on Pyongyang's swift rapprochement with Moscow and Beijing's desire not to lose its influence over Kim Jong-un. Can China bring North Korea back into its orbit?
Summary: This summary was prepared by artificial intelligence and reviewed by an editor. Xi Jinping arrived in Pyongyang to meet with Kim Jong-un after nearly seven years. The visit took place during a period when North Korea was rapidly strengthening its military and economic ties with Russia.
China is concerned about Russia's growing influence over Pyongyang and the decline of its own sway. Kim Jong-un may use his closeness to Moscow to extract economic concessions from Beijing. North Korea's nuclear program is caught between China's regional stability concerns and its desire to maintain influence over Pyongyang.
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The visit, the first in nearly seven years, coincided with a critical period of rebalancing relations between Beijing and Pyongyang. China and North Korea often describe their ties as a "friendship forged in blood" referring to the Korean War, but recent years have seen growing trust issues. North Korea's rapid strengthening of military and economic ties with Russia has caused unease in Beijing.
Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong-un. According to analyses by the BBC and The New York Times, Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea is more about a struggle for influence than a mere show of friendship. China seeks stability on its border and aims to maintain its influence over Pyongyang but does not want to be dragged into crises that North Korea's nuclear ambitions might provoke. Why has China acted now?
The cooling of relations between Beijing and Pyongyang had become evident recently. The two countries marked the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations in October 2024 with low-profile messages. China's ambassador to Pyongyang did not attend North Korea's founding celebrations. High-level contacts remained limited throughout the year. Meanwhile, North Korea's ties with Russia strengthened rapidly.
During Russian President Vladimir Putin's 2024 visit to Pyongyang, the two countries signed a mutual defense agreement. According to BBC research, about 2,300 North Korean soldiers have died fighting alongside Russia in Ukraine. Pyongyang is reported to have supplied Russia with ammunition and troops in exchange for oil, food, aid, and weapons technology.
This situation unsettles not only Washington and its allies but also Beijing. North Korean soldiers at a parade in Moscow. What is Beijing's main concern? China's only official defense agreement is with North Korea. Therefore, Beijing does not want Russia to become the dominant power over Pyongyang. A more confident Kim Jong-un leaning more on Moscow could reduce China's influence over North Korea.
Experts believe Xi wants to demonstrate to the world through this visit that North Korea remains dependent on China and that Beijing cannot be excluded from the equation. At the same time, he aims to balance Kim's closeness to Russia. Experts speaking to The New York Times also interpret Xi's visit as part of China's effort to present itself as a global power on par with the United States.
Beijing is trying to position itself as a "stabilizing power" amid chaos caused by Washington's Iran war and tariff policies. Is Kim Jong-un now stronger? The situation for Kim Jong-un has changed significantly compared to a few years ago.
The failure of nuclear talks with Trump in 2019 and the subsequent border closures due to the coronavirus pandemic plunged North Korea into severe isolation. Kim Jong-un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae. However, Russia's need for North Korean support in the Ukraine war opened a new avenue for Kim.
While Pyongyang provided weapons and troops to Moscow, it received billions of dollars worth of oil, food, weapons technology, and aid in return. For this reason, Kim no longer wants to appear as a leader solely dependent on China. He may also use his closeness to Moscow to extract more economic concessions from Beijing. Tourism is one of these areas.
Kim is reportedly investing in coastal resorts and mountain spas targeting Chinese tourists, a sector exempt from United Nations sanctions. Is the nuclear program on the table? One of the most critical topics of the visit is North Korea's nuclear program.
Since Trump's return to the White House, it is believed he has sought a new summit with Kim and may have even asked Xi to convey a message to Pyongyang. However, Kim Jong-un has previously made it clear that he would reject any dialogue that puts his country's nuclear program on the negotiating table.
For Pyongyang, the nuclear program is both a guarantee against U.S. intervention and a strategic tool that reduces dependence on Moscow and Beijing. China officially opposes a nuclear-armed North Korea because it could prompt U.S. allies like South Korea and Japan to consider their own nuclear capabilities. However, Beijing has recently taken a more cautious approach on this issue.
China fears that too much pressure on Pyongyang could push North Korea even closer to Russia. Indeed, after the last meeting between Xi and Kim in Beijing, official statements notably omitted the long-standing goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. Old mistrust remains unresolved. Problems in China-North Korea relations are not new.
When Kim Jong-un came to power, he took a different path from his father Kim Jong-il. While his father frequently visited China and relied on Beijing's support, Kim Jong-un accelerated the nuclear program in his early years. In his first six years in power, he conducted about 90 ballistic missile tests and four nuclear tests, surpassing the total tests during his father’s and grandfather’s eras.
Additionally, executing his uncle Jang Song Thaek, whom China saw as a stabilizing figure, deepened the rift with Beijing. During this period, Xi Jinping sent a clear message to Pyongyang by visiting South Korea in 2014 before meeting Kim. North Korea responded with harsh rhetoric, calling China "traitorous" and an "enemy."
Relations only began to recover in 2018 when sanctions over the nuclear program intensified. Kim made his first known foreign trip by armored train to Beijing. Since then, before meeting with U.S. and South Korean leaders, he has consulted China, showing Pyongyang cannot completely sideline Beijing. Kim Jong-un. Both sides need each other. Today, North Korea is both a buffer zone and a burden for China.
Pyongyang prevents U.S. troops from approaching China's border but destabilizes the region with missile tests and its nuclear program. Kim wants China's protection but not its control. With the new balance established with Russia, he is trying to strengthen his hand against Beijing. For China, the goal is clear: to limit Russia's influence over Pyongyang without losing North Korea.
Therefore, Xi's visit is seen as a new chapter in the power struggle in Northeast Asia, beyond the rhetoric of "friendship forged in blood."
