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Eiland says he warned Netanyahu of the risk of a multi-front war
Giora Eiland, Israel’s former National Security Council chief, said he warned Netanyahu in Tel Aviv on August 16, 2023, that a war could break out in late 2023 or early 2024. His remarks have revived debate over the period when Israeli military intelligence identified a rising risk of a multi-front war.
Giora Eiland, Israel’s former National Security Council chief, said he held a private meeting with Netanyahu at the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv on August 16, 2023, and told him that a war could break out in late 2023 or early 2024.
Eiland said his request for an urgent meeting with Netanyahu came after then-Military Intelligence Directorate chief Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva changed his security assessment. Eiland said Haliva had identified a significant increase in the risk of war in the summer of 2023, adding that the development prompted him to act.
Assessment of the risk of a multi-front war
Eiland said Israeli military intelligence had considered the possibility of war low until the end of 2022, but Haliva changed that assessment in June and July 2023. The new assessment highlighted the possibility of a multi-front war.
The assessment was discussed at a meeting attended by eight former senior officials, including former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and former defense ministers Moshe Ya’alon and Amos Yadlin. Eiland said he conveyed his concerns about war to Netanyahu after the meeting because he believed the situation was urgent.
Warning attributed to the UAE leader
A report alleged that United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan warned Netanyahu during a phone call on September 23, 2023, about Hamas’s intention to carry out a major attack.
The warning was allegedly issued at a time when Israel had not responded to demands to release Palestinian detainees and ease economic pressure on Gaza. The report also alleged that Netanyahu did not relay the warning to senior officials in the security establishment.
The UAE Foreign Ministry said Abu Dhabi had been working since October 7, 2023, to de-escalate tensions, strengthen regional stability and limit violence. The ministry said government institutions in the UAE and Israel had maintained direct communication channels since relations began and shared intelligence when necessary.
Debate over failures before October 7
Debate continues in Israel over the political, military and intelligence failures that occurred before October 7, 2023. Hamas said it had attacked military bases and communities along the Gaza border on October 7 in response to violations against Palestinians and holy sites, particularly the Al-Aqsa Mosque.
Netanyahu declined to accept political responsibility for the failures preceding the attack and placed the responsibility on the army and security agencies. The opposition argued that political responsibility lay with Netanyahu.
Disagreements between Netanyahu and the opposition deepened ahead of general elections, while opinion polls indicated that Netanyahu had failed to secure the majority needed to form a new government.
Eiland is also known as the architect of the “Generals’ Plan,” which calls for encircling the northern Gaza Strip and expelling Palestinians from the area. Netanyahu has led the cabinet described as the “most right-wing government” in Israel’s history since December 2022.
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