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Eisenkot leads Israel election polls as Netanyahu bloc falls short of 61 seats
As Israel’s October 27 general election approaches, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud in the polls. The latest Maariv survey shows that the opposition could reach the 61 seats needed to form a government with support from the alliance between Yoaz Hendel and economist Yaron Zelekha.
Polls ahead of Israel’s general election on October 27 indicate that Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party could win more seats than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. However, the prospects of becoming prime minister and forming a government will depend on whether smaller parties clear the electoral threshold and which blocs they support after the election.
Yashar leads Likud in the polls
Surveys published between September 3 and 8 projected that Yashar would win between 22 and 25 seats in the Knesset. Likud was projected to win between 20 and 21 seats.
A poll conducted by the Lazar Research Institute for Maariv on September 4 gave Yashar 23 seats and Likud 20. In a survey conducted by the Index research center for Israel’s Channel 13, Yashar was measured at 22 seats and Likud at 21.
In Channel 13’s survey dated August 27, Yashar was projected to win 24 seats and Likud 19, while a poll published on September 3 narrowed the gap between the two parties to one seat. In the latest Maariv survey, published on Tuesday, Yashar rose to 25 seats while Likud remained at 20.
A poll by Israel Public Broadcasting Corporation KAN on September 6 did not disclose Yashar’s individual seat tally, while Likud was projected to win 20 seats. The margins of error and the narrow gaps between the parties indicate that Likud could close the difference by election day.
Forming a government requires support from 61 lawmakers
Yashar finishing first would not automatically make Eisenkot prime minister. Under Israel’s parliamentary system, forming a government requires the support of at least 61 lawmakers.
Even if Netanyahu’s party does not finish first, he could form a government if he secures enough support. The opposition may fail to form a government even if its parties win more seats overall, if they cannot agree on coalition partners or outside support.
Eisenkot also led in polls measuring the preferred choice for prime minister. In Maariv’s September 4 survey, Eisenkot received 48 percent support, compared with 39 percent for Netanyahu. In Channel 13’s September 3 survey, Eisenkot received 47 percent and Netanyahu 37 percent.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also ranked ahead of Netanyahu in the Maariv poll. Bennett received 43 percent support, compared with 39 percent for Netanyahu. While these figures measure political support, they do not by themselves determine who will become prime minister.
Hendel-Zelekha alliance could give the opposition a majority
In Maariv’s September 4 poll, Jewish opposition parties won 57 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc won 51. Arab parties were projected to win 12 seats. Despite holding a six-seat lead, the opposition remained four seats short of the 61 needed for a governing majority.
In Channel 13’s September 3 survey, Netanyahu’s bloc and the Jewish opposition each won 53 seats, while Arab parties received 14. In the same channel’s August 27 poll, the opposition was measured at 57 seats, Netanyahu’s bloc at 48 and Arab parties at 15.
KAN’s September 6 survey gave Netanyahu’s bloc 52 seats and the opposition led by Eisenkot 51. Arab parties were projected to win 13 seats, while the new alliance between Yoaz Hendel and economist Yaron Zelekha was projected to win four.
In the latest Maariv poll, Netanyahu’s bloc won 47 seats and opposition parties won 57. If the Hendel-Zelekha alliance wins four seats, the opposition could reach the 61-seat majority with the alliance’s support.
Hendel and Zelekha have not said which political bloc they would support if their party enters parliament. If the alliance remains neutral, supports neither candidate or sides with Netanyahu, the opposition may not secure the majority needed to form a government.
Small parties are changing the coalition arithmetic
Across the polls, parties supporting Netanyahu are projected to win between 47 and 53 seats, while the Jewish opposition is projected to win between 51 and 57. Arab parties are estimated to hold between 12 and 14 seats, while the Hendel-Zelekha alliance won four seats in some surveys.
Whether small parties clear the electoral threshold has played an important role in the rapid changes between the results. Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party won four seats in Channel 13’s September 3 poll and Maariv’s September 4 survey. Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism was projected to win between five and six seats.
In Channel 13’s September 3 survey, where Amcha Yisrael and Religious Zionism both cleared the threshold, Netanyahu’s bloc rose to 53 seats. In the latest Maariv poll, however, the far-right Amcha Yisrael failed to win any seats and Netanyahu’s bloc fell to 47.
According to the latest Maariv survey, Likud won 20 seats, Otzma Yehudit eight, United Torah Judaism and Shas seven each, and Religious Zionism five. If small right-wing parties fail to clear the threshold, votes cast for them may not be represented in parliament, narrowing Netanyahu’s coalition options.
Candidate lists could affect post-election alliances
Winter rejected forming an alliance with Smotrich and submitted an independent list. The decision drew criticism from Religious Zionism leader Smotrich.
Eisenkot also decided that Yashar would contest the election separately rather than merge with the Together alliance led by Bennett, which includes candidates from Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party. These choices appear to have increased uncertainty over the coalitions that could be formed after the election.
Maariv’s September 4 poll surveyed 600 Israelis and reported a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Channel 13’s September 3 survey was conducted among 940 people and reported a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points. The latest Maariv poll also surveyed 600 people and reported a margin of error of four percentage points.
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