Developments involving the United States and Iran that heightened concerns over energy supplies were at the center of global markets’ attention in the first trading sessions of the new week. Investors also monitored mixed signals from U.S. employment data and expectations for the Fed’s interest-rate decision next week.
Iran weighs on oil prices
The price of November Brent crude ended the previous week at $96.3 per barrel, up 0.8%. It rose 1.1% at the start of the new week to reach $97.3.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that a U.S. aircraft carrier and a destroyer participating in the naval blockade of Iranian ships had been targeted with ballistic missiles. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary-general of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said a new corridor agreement concerning Oman and the entrances to and exits from the Strait of Hormuz would be signed in the coming days.
Heightened tensions in the Middle East and concerns over the impact of energy prices on European economies also contributed to European stock index futures opening the week lower.
Employment data shaped expectations for the Fed
The ADP private-sector employment data released in the United States last week pointed to a loss of momentum in the labor market. An increase in nonfarm payrolls, however, led to assessments that the economy remained strong. The concentration of the increase in hospitality, food services and the public sector prompted comments that the rise could be seasonal.
According to money-market pricing, the probability that the Fed will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting stood at 58%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged stood at 42%. Inflation data due in the United States this week are expected to clarify expectations regarding the interest-rate decision.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said monetary policy was not restrictive. Hammack said that the longer inflation remains above target, the harder it becomes to bring it down, adding that the time to act had arrived.
U.S. President Donald Trump argued that the employment data had exceeded expectations—other than his own forecasts—threefold. Trump said interest rates should be lowered, adding that markets should rise in response to strong data and that growth would not cause inflation.
AI stocks support Asian markets
Optimism in artificial intelligence was among the factors supporting risk appetite in the markets. OpenAI announced that a model called GPT-6 Astra had been made available to a limited number of users. The model was described as capable of managing complex computer systems, filling out spreadsheets and designing websites.
Expectations of increased investment in artificial intelligence strengthened forecasts for demand in the semiconductor sector. Shares of SK Hynix rose 7.4% in South Korea, while LG Electronics gained 5.1% and Samsung Electronics advanced 5%.
In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.9% and South Korea’s Kospi rose 4.1%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell 0.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.2%. The dollar-yen exchange rate remained flat at 156.09 in Japan.
European markets await the ECB decision
Investors in European markets are focused on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party won the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament election with 43.8% of the vote but failed to secure the majority required to govern alone.
On Friday, Italy’s FTSE MIB 30 fell 0.28% and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.09%. Germany’s DAX 40, meanwhile, rose 0.17%.
After ending the week at 4.78%, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note started the new week at 4.79%. The dollar index remained flat at 99.2, while spot gold traded at $4,396 per ounce after falling 0.8%.
Türkiye announces its medium-term program
The BIST 100 index on Borsa Istanbul ended Friday up 0.57% at 14,012.42 points. The dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate finished the day at 48.4330 and started the new week at 48.4390 in the interbank market.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced the Medium-Term Program covering the 2027–2029 period at the Presidential Complex. Yılmaz said they expected inflation to resume declining in the final quarter of 2026 and reach 28.4% at the end of the year.
Yılmaz said Türkiye’s economy would grow by 3.3% in 2026, adding that growth was projected to reach 4.2% in 2027, 4.6% in 2028 and 5% in 2029.
Germany’s July industrial production, the eurozone’s September investor confidence and second-quarter growth data, as well as Türkiye’s August Treasury cash balance, are on the day’s data calendar. U.S. markets will be closed for Labor Day.
