The mutual military moves between the U.S. and Iran heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, triggering fluctuations in global financial markets. This pushed oil prices higher while putting pressure on other assets such as stocks and gold.
U.S.-Iran Crisis Pushes Oil Prices to Peak
U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that the ceasefire with Iran had ended and CENTCOM's statement that it struck approximately 90 Iranian military targets escalated tensions. As a result, the price of Brent crude oil hit $80 a barrel yesterday for the first time since June 22.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz saw a sharp decline. The number of crossings fell to 7 yesterday from 14 the previous day.
Economic Signals from the Fed and IMF
Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) showed that most officials indicated interest rate hikes could be on the table if inflation remains high due to factors such as artificial intelligence demand or the war in the Middle East.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for this year from 3.1 percent to 3 percent in its World Economic Outlook report. The report noted that Turkey's economy is expected to grow 2.9 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026.
Gold and Stocks Decline
Inflation concerns triggered by rising oil prices and expectations of a tight stance from central banks pressured gold prices. The ounce price of gold fell 0.7 percent yesterday, declining for the third consecutive trading day to $4,067.
New York stock markets saw a mixed performance. The S&P 500 fell 0.28 percent, the Dow Jones dropped 1.09 percent, while the Nasdaq rose 0.2 percent. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.58 percent.
European stock markets traded lower due to geopolitical risks and Trump's trade remarks targeting Spain. The FTSE 100 in the UK fell 1.66 percent, Germany's DAX 40 dropped 2.23 percent, France's CAC 40 lost 2.18 percent, and Italy's FTSE MIB 30 declined 1.22 percent.
Asian and Turkish Markets
Asian stock markets were mostly in negative territory, while Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 1.4 percent. The Kospi fell 0.73 percent, the Shanghai Composite dropped 0.15 percent, and the Hang Seng declined 0.81 percent.
In Borsa Istanbul, the BIST 100 index fell 2.12 percent yesterday to 14,189.96 points. The dollar/lira exchange rate closed at 46.8450 and is trading at 46.8710 in the new trading day.
President Erdoğan's NATO Summit Statement
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, speaking after the 36th NATO Summit of Heads of State and Government hosted by Turkey, said: "All allies participated in the summit at the leader level. We see this as a new proof of the trust in Turkey and the prestige of our diplomacy."
Technical Levels and Today's Data
Analysts noted that in the BIST 100 index, 14,100 and 14,000 points are support, while 14,250 and 14,300 points are resistance.
Today, markets will focus on the following data:
- Japan June Machinery Orders
- Germany May Trade Balance
- Turkey weekly money and banking statistics
- U.S. weekly jobless claims
- U.S. June existing home sales
