Iranian analysts note that, despite the 14-point memorandum of understanding signed between the Iranian and US presidents after the Ramadan War, the Israeli regime continues to persistently violate the ceasefire in southern Lebanon.
The first article of the agreement declared an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and the parties committed to refraining from any hostile actions, threats, or use of force.
Israel's Pursuit of Superiority on the Ground
However, the presence of Israeli forces in border areas and southern Lebanon, and their attempts to create a superior field position, indicate that Tel Aviv is either unwilling to fully implement its commitments or is pursuing them within separate calculations.
This situation poses a fundamental question for Iranian decision-makers: What should the Islamic Republic of Iran do in the face of this blatant ceasefire violation and attempt to alter the equation in Lebanon?
Structural Relationship and Deterrence
The issue cannot be analyzed solely at the level of a tactical ceasefire violation. It must be addressed within the context of the structural relationship between the US and Israel, the impact of the Ramadan War on deterrence, and the imperatives for Iran to establish a new security arrangement.
Despite some signs of tension observed between the US and Israel, the principle of strategic alliance between the two sides remains valid. Israel's advances could strengthen the US's hand at the negotiating table and remove the Lebanese equation from the framework of the agreement.
Iran's Leverage and Options
Under these conditions, Iran needs to strike a balance between maintaining active deterrence, utilizing geopolitical leverage (straits), and demonstrating tactical and intelligent flexibility on the nuclear file.
Powerful strategic levers, such as closing the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb, could significantly increase the cost for the other side of violating the ceasefire and fundamentally alter the cost-benefit equations for Washington and Tel Aviv.
On the nuclear file, Iran could demonstrate intelligent tactical flexibility at low enrichment levels. This flexibility could allow the country to maintain its 60% enriched stockpile while retaining the capacity to change doctrine and rapidly upgrade capacity in the future.
Requirements for a New Security Arrangement
To establish its desired security arrangement in the region, Iran needs to redefine the security equation on the Lebanese front. Hezbollah, a key player in the Axis of Resistance, plays a significant role in this security equation.
Iran's policy should be based on strengthening coordination among Axis of Resistance members, activating geopolitical cards, and simultaneously utilizing diplomacy and deterrence.
The experience of the Ramadan War demonstrated that Iran's resilience and the coordination of the Axis of Resistance invalidated the narrative of the resistance front's weakness. Now is the time to transform this resilience into a sustainable strategic success.
