According to an analysis published by Al Jazeera, Iran continues to use the Strait of Hormuz and its regional allies as its strongest bargaining chips in nuclear negotiations, despite the memorandum of understanding signed with the US.
The analysis notes that Iran is not acting hastily due to its religious fatwa against nuclear weapons production, but is strengthening its hand against the US by increasing its uranium enrichment capacity and consolidating its regional influence.
Fragile stability in Lebanon
According to the article, despite the election of a new president and government in Lebanon at the end of 2024, Hezbollah's launch of a military operation against Israel in March has brought the country's sovereignty issue back to the fore. The government is unable to control decisions of war and peace, and cannot establish authority over large areas in the south.
The analysis argues that the agreement signed with Israel under US mediation has not been implemented on the ground, and could deepen the political crisis rather than bring peace to Lebanon.
Iran's influence in Iraq
The analysis contends that Iraq is far from freeing itself from Iran's influence, with Tehran running the country almost like a province. It notes that the holding of funeral ceremonies for former religious leader Ali Khamenei in three Iraqi cities demonstrates the extent of Iran's influence.
The analysis claims that the new prime minister's efforts to reduce the influence of pro-Iran forces have gone no further than temporary messages of reassurance to regional countries.
Tensions rise in Yemen
The analysis states that despite the fragile ceasefire that has lasted over four years in Yemen, recent developments have further complicated the situation. Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi's call for general mobilization over the past two weeks, and Iran's sending of a civilian plane to Sanaa last Friday to take a Houthi delegation to Khamenei's funeral, have escalated tensions.
Following these steps, the Yemeni government and the Saudi-led coalition reacted strongly, and the possibility of the Yemen crisis turning back into hot conflict has increased, the analysis says.
On the other hand, the analysis notes that international sanctions have created economic pressure on the Houthis, and for this reason they have avoided entering active conflict alongside Iran for the past four months, which has had a positive impact on the prisoner exchange negotiations underway in the Jordanian capital Amman.
Search for solutions
The analysis emphasizes that the Yemeni government is struggling to fill the political and security vacuum that emerged after the dissolution of the Southern Transitional Council, and that regaining control over public revenues is a priority.
The analysis notes that the situations in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen have different dynamics, but in all three, the conflict between internationally recognized governments and de facto authorities makes a resolution difficult. It states that neither an easy peace nor a decisive war is possible, and that the 'neither war nor peace' state is exhausting the populations in terms of living conditions.
