The renewed clashes between Iran and the US have paralyzed maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the Middle East's most strategic waterways. Lloyd's List Intelligence data reveals that no large-tonnage vessels using the main route in the area have passed through since July 7.
The maritime data company stated, "Lloyd's List Intelligence data indicates that vessels over 10,000 dwt have not transited the so-called Southern Passage using AIS signals since July 7; it is estimated that at least two vessels have passed with their systems turned off."
Daily transits drop from 130 to 5
According to Thursday morning data from the maritime intelligence platform Windward, only five vessels could be tracked in the strait. This is far below the daily average of 130 vessel transits before the clashes began. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) announced that the current traffic level reflects the "cautious stance" of shipping companies and points to a "heightened threat environment."
"Iran puts all regional maritime shipping at risk"
John Bradford, Executive Director of the Yokosuka Council for Asia-Pacific Studies, stated that Iran's capacity to attack vessels in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Sea of Oman puts all maritime shipping in the region at risk. Bradford warned that if the crisis prolongs, shipping could shift to other ports and routes.
Mutual attack claims and conflicting statements
Iran reported that multiple explosions occurred in the south of the country on Thursday. However, a US official said that US forces were not behind these attacks; no country or group has yet claimed responsibility for the explosions. In contrast, Iranian officials and media claimed that Tehran's forces attacked US military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Iraq in response to Washington's operations launched as retaliation for attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices calm for now, but rise expected
Despite the turmoil in the region, oil prices remained largely stable on Friday. Brent crude traded at $76.37 per barrel as of 02:30 GMT, marking an increase of over $4 compared to last week. Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, noted that the relative stability in prices reflects the market's confidence that the situation in the Middle East will calm down, but upward pressure will increase in the coming weeks as reserves deplete. Melek said, "Accordingly, we forecast Brent to rise by $10-15 into the summer months."
June Goh, Senior Oil Analyst at Sparta Commodities, said the biggest price pressure is on refined products, especially diesel, rather than crude. Goh stated, "Diesel is affected by both supply losses from Middle Eastern refineries and the ongoing drone attacks on Russian refineries, and prices are well above seasonal norms."
Asian markets rise
Asian stock markets opened positively on Friday, following a 0.8% rise in US markets. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index gained 1.9%, Seoul's Kospi rose 3.6%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index added 1.4%.
