Under the agreement reached between the US and Iran, Washington has committed to issuing export exemptions for Iran's crude oil, petrochemical products and derivatives, as well as related services such as shipping, insurance, and banking transactions.
This step represents a fundamental shift for Iran's oil industry, which has faced unprecedented pressure in recent months due to war and disruptions in export routes.
Export Crisis and Storage Problem
Ship tracking data reveals that Iran's main challenge is not extracting oil, but selling it. Crude oil exports, which reached approximately 1.5 million barrels per day in April, fell to just 260,000 barrels in May.
During the same period, onshore stocks rose from 60.6 million barrels in January to about 72 million barrels by mid-June. This is the highest level seen since the coronavirus pandemic.
According to estimates from the energy-specialized site Oil Price, a significant portion of the oil that reached China in May and June came not from new exports from Iran, but from stocks in floating storage that had left the Gulf before maritime restrictions tightened.
Return to the Official Market
The lifting of sanctions means not only finding more buyers, but also reintegrating Iranian oil into the official commercial system. Tehran will be able to use traditional shipping, insurance, and financing services it has been deprived of for years.
Jerry Kalogiratos, CEO of Capital Tankers, said the return of Iranian oil to the official market will lead to these shipments gradually transitioning to traditional commercial tankers, as buyers will no longer have the motivation to use linked vessels to avoid sanctions.
Stephanie Connor, former policy official at the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), described the deal as an 'extraordinary agreement' that returns Iran's oil sector to the global commercial system after years of isolation.
Investment Need for Production Increase
According to energy expert Mamdouh Salameh, Iran could restore its exports to pre-war levels of 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels per day, but its capacity to increase production beyond current levels will remain limited in the short term.
Salameh stated that for Iran to significantly increase its production, it needs investments exceeding $50 billion and at least five years.
International relations professor and energy expert Charbel Skaff noted that Iran could gradually increase its production from approximately 2 million barrels per day to 3.5 million barrels, but the speed of this transformation will depend on the continuation of agreements with the US and Tehran's capacity to modernize its oil infrastructure and attract foreign investment.
OPEC+ Balances and Price Impact
The return of Iranian oil raises new questions about production quota balances within OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance. Expert Salameh believes it is premature for OPEC to grant Iran a larger quota before it reaches its current quota and proves sustainable production capacity at higher levels.
According to energy expert Laurie Haitayan, the normal return of Iranian barrels to the markets will be a stabilizing factor on oil prices and will help mitigate the disruptions sanctions have created in oil trade.
Charbel Skaff suggests the price impact could become more pronounced in the medium term, with the gradual increase in supply and the return of Iranian resources to global markets.
