Following the US-Israel war on Iran, Gulf countries are accelerating their search to diversify security partnerships. Analysts note that Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which have been subjected to Iranian attacks, are signaling a move away from the Washington-centered security architecture amid the uncertainty.
Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a non-resident researcher at the Arab Gulf States Institute, stressed that the search for new security partners does not aim to replace the US. "For countries like Saudi Arabia, the focus is on regional power balance and pushing back both Iran and Israel," Jacobs Khalaf said, noting that establishing platforms like the quartet of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, and developing their own defense capabilities, are coming to the fore.
Iranian attacks change risk perception
In the war that started on February 28, Iranian attacks targeted bases housing US troops as well as civilian sites in some Gulf countries, including airports, energy facilities and hotels. Although Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding earlier this month ending the war, the army led by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards carried out missile and drone strikes on targets in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Jacobs Khalaf said that the US and Israel's decision to attack Iran and Tehran's retaliation against the Arabian Peninsula created an "unprecedented security crisis" for GCC members, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. "The Iran war is leading some Gulf countries to question the US as a security guarantor," she added.
Annelle Sheline, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, also indicated that GCC countries would move to diversify their security alliances and deepen ties with China, Turkey and Europe. Sheline said that US forces were not only "unreliable" in preventing Iranian attacks, but that "in fact, the US military presence in Gulf countries had the opposite effect of deterrence, making those bases targets."
Economic ties with Iran are strengthening
Despite anger over the Iranian attacks, Gulf countries kept communication channels open with Tehran, including at the security level. Some experts suggest that investments can provide more effective deterrence than weapons. Sheline said that if Gulf and Iranian economic interests become intertwined, Tehran would think twice before striking the region.
US Vice President JD Vance, in an interview with UnHerd, pointed to this strategy, saying, "Even the United Arab Emirates, by far the most hawkish, most pro-Israel GCC country, is holding unprecedented talks with the Iranians, including with the Revolutionary Guards."
The Israel factor and the US position
Many Gulf countries also view Israel's expansionist policies and military campaigns as a threat. Last year, during US-backed Gaza ceasefire mediation, Israel bombed the Qatari capital Doha, targeting Hamas leaders. US President Donald Trump said he was "not at all pleased" with the attacks on Qatar and indicated that he had not approved them.
Sheline said that if the ceasefire agreement turns into a comprehensive reconciliation with Iran, the US could finally withdraw from the Middle East, but that Israel could drag Washington back into conflict by keeping tensions alive. "The biggest question mark is Israel," Sheline said, adding that if the US pressures Israel to prevent the Netanyahu government from sabotaging the deal, regional countries could take more responsibility for their own security.
Jacobs Khalaf, on the other hand, said, "Many Gulf countries feel a great threat from Israel's increasingly aggressive posture in the region," and stressed that the destruction Israel has caused in Gaza since October 7, its expansion of the occupation in Palestinian territories, and its attacks on Lebanon and Syria pose a threat to all Gulf states, including those that have normalized relations with Israel, and that this is unacceptable.
