Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea have also put alternative routes for Middle Eastern oil to bypass the Strait of Hormuz at security risk. The East-West (Petroline) pipeline, which connects Saudi Arabia's eastern oil fields to the Yanbu Port on the west coast, ensures oil reaches the Red Sea. However, the security of shipments after Yanbu remains dependent on maritime transport.
While oil bound for Europe can be sent via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline, tankers heading to Asia must pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to reach the Indian Ocean. According to Kpler data, the number of commodity vessels transiting Bab el-Mandeb dropped to 11 on July 26, marking the lowest daily level in recent months.
Petroline's capacity and limits
The Yanbu South Terminal, commissioned by Saudi Aramco in 2018, added 3 million barrels per day (bpd) to the country's crude export capacity on the west coast. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the Petroline has a nominal capacity of 5 million bpd, and with a 2019 expansion it can temporarily carry up to 7 million bpd. However, this capacity does not mean the same amount of oil can be delivered uninterrupted to global markets.
Asian markets are more vulnerable
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), about 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, with around 80% of that heading to Asian markets. Therefore, even if a potential disruption in Hormuz were attempted to be compensated via Petroline, shipments to Asia would still depend on safe passage through the Bab el-Mandeb.
According to the IEA, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have an alternative export capacity of 3.5-5.5 million bpd via pipelines that bypass Hormuz. This capacity is insufficient to fully replace the total oil volume passing through Hormuz.
Experts deem multiple export options essential
MEES Managing Editor Jamie Ingram stated that security risks in the Red Sea could complicate Saudi Arabia's alternative export operations. He said that redirecting shipments northwards via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline is possible, but that would increase voyage times and transportation costs.
Noting that Petroline remains critically important for the region's oil, Ingram stressed that the top priority in energy security is ensuring uninterrupted supply to customers, adding: "Reliably supplying customers now requires having multiple export options. More diverse pipeline routes will be developed in the coming years."
Ingram added that the primary market for Middle Eastern producers remains Asia, and thus Asian importers could be more affected by potential disruptions in the region compared to Europe.
SUMED pipeline offers an alternative for Europe
Risks in the Red Sea have once again highlighted Egypt's SUMED pipeline, which has a capacity of 2.5 million bpd. The pipeline transports crude from the Ain Sokhna Terminal on the Red Sea coast to the Sidi Kerir Terminal on the Mediterranean. However, since both SUMED and Suez options require tankers to traverse the northern Red Sea, these routes do not entirely eliminate the region's security risks.
