The plan to integrate armed groups into Iraq's state security structure has yet to take a definitive shape as Sept. 30 approaches. The date is being considered the starting point of the disarmament process, alongside the withdrawal of US military elements from the country.
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaydi said Sept. 30 was not the final deadline for armed groups to lay down their weapons. Al-Zaydi said the timetable set for completing the process had been extended to June 2027 and stated that the goal was to incorporate pro-Iranian militias resisting disarmament into Iraq's official military structure by that date.
Reciprocal military restraint in the first phase
During the first 90 days of the plan, pro-Iranian militia groups are expected not to attack US forces. In return, US forces are expected not to conduct military operations against those groups.
The arrangement is based on placing heavy weapons under state control before the groups fully disarm and determining the future of individuals serving in the armed structures through a legal transition mechanism. The integration option is intended to provide a more acceptable way out by preventing the groups from viewing the process as a defeat.
Hashd al-Shaabi's place in the security structure
Iraq's security architecture also includes structures controlled by different groups outside the official armed forces. The most significant of these consist largely of Shiite militia groups with close ties to Iran.
Hashd al-Shaabi, which was formed by Shiite volunteers following a call from Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani after ISIS captured Mosul, subsequently developed close ties with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iranian generals. Members of Hashd al-Shaabi are recognized as a legitimate force under Iraqi law and receive salaries from the state.
Some Shiite militias close to Iran, however, operate independently of Iraqi state forces. The United States does not want Iranian officials to communicate with Hashd al-Shaabi without the knowledge of the Iraqi administration. The Baghdad government is also seeking to limit contacts between non-state armed structures and foreign officials.
Groups' diversity complicates Baghdad's plan
The presence of armed structures in the country is not limited to Shiite militias. Non-state groups among Sunni communities, Yazidi structures in Sinjar and the Kurds' Peshmerga forces also complicate Iraq's security landscape.
The support these groups provide to actors in neighboring countries in line with their own interests also affects Iraq's regional relations. Shiite militias are considered to have supported Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria and cooperated with some Shiite tribes in northern Saudi Arabia.
The PKK's presence in northern Iraq also remains one of the key security issues in Türkiye-Iraq relations. While steps to end armed activities have been welcomed, it is stated that the organization's presence and the security threat it has created have not been completely eliminated.
Baghdad aims to strengthen state control
The Iraqi government aims to end the independent military activities of non-state armed groups and place heavy weapons under the control of official authorities. The United States is also said to have asked Baghdad to transfer weapons outside the control of state institutions to official authorities and prepare a specific timetable for dismantling militia groups.
The dismantling of armed groups is important not only for Iraq's relations with its neighbors but also for the country's internal political balance. Progress in the process is seen as depending on the establishment of a legal framework to regulate the groups' integration and the management of tensions between the parties.
Iraq's security order is expected to be reshaped with the end of the US military presence and the international coalition formed to fight ISIS. This change is considered likely to generate new debates over Türkiye's role in regional security balances.
