NATO's upcoming summit in Ankara could lay the foundations for a new security architecture in the Persian Gulf, under the shadow of deepening security concerns fueled by Iran's recent military moves. Dr. Betül Doğan Akkaş, a faculty member at Ankara University's Department of International Relations, made this assessment in an analysis written for Anadolu Agency.
Akkaş noted that in the post-Cold War international system, Iran's direct military actions have significantly altered regional dynamics. While Arab monarchies already viewed Iran as a potential threat, these developments have further heightened the Gulf countries' security concerns.
The Gulf countries' military security remains largely dependent on external partners. Since the early 1990s, the foundation of this system has been bilateral agreements with the United States. However, in recent years, regional states have been diversifying their partnership portfolios by developing cooperation with European countries, Turkey, China, and Israel, and investing in their own defense industries.
Istanbul Cooperation Initiative and current status
NATO's institutional engagement with the Gulf countries began with the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI), launched in 2004. Today, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait participate in the initiative, while Saudi Arabia and Oman remain outside. Dr. Akkaş emphasized that despite progress in cooperation, most projects under the ICI have not been implemented, and the Gulf countries' participation in NATO operations in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Libya, and Syria has remained symbolic.
NATO's decision to develop Individual Cooperation Programs that take into account each state's unique circumstances is seen as an important step. This approach shows that the Alliance understands that the threat perceptions and expectations of regional countries differ. The UAE, the most active partner, opened a permanent mission at NATO headquarters in 2012, while Kuwait, which hosts the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative Regional Centre, also plays an important role.
However, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) do not share a common perspective on regional security. The dominant role of the United States in regional security and NATO's focus on the conflict in Ukraine are listed as other factors limiting the Alliance's ability to expand its presence in the Middle East.
Regional impact of the summit and maritime security
As previously stated by Deputy Foreign Minister Levent Gümrükçü, a special session will be held as part of NATO's Ankara summit with the four Gulf countries participating in the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative. Dr. Akkaş stated that although institutional and political obstacles persist, the conflicts in the region necessitate a more effective security architecture and fair burden-sharing among allies. Under these conditions, she noted, the Ankara summit could determine NATO's place in the region's new security system.
Maritime security stands out as one of the most promising areas of cooperation. NATO has significant experience in this field and can contribute to ensuring the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as preventing the environmental consequences of potential attacks on commercial vessels and oil tankers. Additionally, the Alliance could propose joint maritime patrol mechanisms to regional countries, expand personnel training programs, and deepen operational cooperation.
Dr. Akkaş added that the Gulf countries already have a Maritime Operations Centre within the Peninsula Shield joint forces in Bahrain, and that cooperation with NATO could significantly enhance the effectiveness of the existing regional security system.
