With less than two months remaining before the 2026 US midterm elections, Israel policy has emerged as a major issue in political debates within the Republican and Democratic parties. American academic Dr. Adam McConnel examines the policy's potential impact on the congressional race and the future of American politics.
McConnel notes that incumbent presidents and their parties generally lose votes in US midterm elections. He argues that the political tensions during the first year of President Donald Trump's second term have also created a significant test for Republicans.
Trump's influence over Republicans
McConnel argues that Trump's unpredictable decision-making style presents both an advantage and a risk for the Republican Party. Some candidates backed by Trump have succeeded, while some Republican candidates have concluded that keeping their distance from the president would be more beneficial in their own districts.
McConnel also notes that some senior figures who previously supported Trump have distanced themselves from him because of US policy toward Israel. He argues that the growing alienation among younger Republican voters has further intensified the debate within the party.
Debate over direction and leadership among Democrats
The Democratic Party is facing questions over its direction and leadership following its defeat in the 2024 elections. The generational conflict between younger figures and the party's traditional and senior ranks continues to fuel debates within the Democratic National Committee.
McConnel states that Democrats first nominated Joe Biden in the 2024 elections and that Kamala Harris became the nominee after Biden withdrew from the race. The party also lost control of the House of Representatives in addition to the presidency.
McConnel argues that Democrats are heading into the 2026 midterm elections without sufficiently debating the reasons for their electoral defeat and the party's strategy. Policy and generational disagreements within the party are making it more difficult to gain political advantage from Trump-related debates among Republicans.
Israel policy at the center of divisions in both parties
McConnel argues that Israel policy lies at the center of divisions within both the Republican and Democratic parties. The older and moderate wing of the Democratic Party wants traditional support for Israel to continue, while younger and progressive members are calling for an end to US aid.
In McConnel's assessment, US policy toward Israel is not merely a foreign policy issue. He argues that its political, cultural, military and religious dimensions have turned it into one of the central debates in American domestic politics.
McConnel argues that in the 2026 midterm elections, the party that defines its approach to Israel policy more effectively could have a long-term impact on the political balance in Congress.
