Oceans store 90% of excess heat as 2026 may break record

The U.S. Berkeley Earth research organization said it is 95% confident that 2026 will surpass the temperature record set in 2024, while the Copernicus service confirmed that last October was the hottest on record.

As the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP31 opened in the Turkish city of Antalya, the independent U.S. research organization Berkeley Earth told the BBC that it was 95% confident that 2026 would break the global temperature record set in 2024, even though two months of the year remain.

Robert Rohde, a researcher at the organization, said consecutive record-breaking years were expected as global warming continued, alongside the collapse of glaciers and unprecedented heatwaves and droughts. He warned that what is happening could be only the beginning.

Participants at the COP31 conference in Antalya

Oceans are warmer than ever

The World Meteorological Organization, for its part, made a more cautious forecast, saying that 2026 would be among the four hottest years on record and noting that an unusually strong El Niño would continue through 2027. The organization’s Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño does not add new heat to the planet but releases heat stored in the oceans, which have absorbed about 90% of the excess heat generated by greenhouse gases.

The European Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that October 2026 was the hottest October on record. According to the BBC, the world is heading toward warming of about 2.8 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of the century, far exceeding the Paris Agreement’s target of 1.5 degrees.

Sources: BBC, Berkeley Earth (berkeleyearth.org). Chart: BBC, ERA5/C3S/ECMWF data