The US "Four Seas Initiative," which aims to radically alter the Middle East energy map, stands out as a project set to redefine regional dynamics. Prof. Dr. Serhat Erkmen, Director of Pros&Cons Security and Risk Analysis, stated that the initiative aims to link the Persian Gulf, Caspian Sea, Mediterranean, and Black Sea, thereby reducing the influence of US rivals such as China, Russia, and Iran.
Origins and objectives of the initiative
The project emerges as an expanded version of the "Three Seas Initiative" announced by US President Donald Trump in 2017. The name Four Seas Initiative was first uttered on March 26, 2026, at the Atlantic Council's US-Syria Energy Symposium in Washington by then-US Ambassador to Ankara and Special Representative for Syria Tom Barrack.
According to Erkmen, the project is based on the assumption that "the current energy equation in the Middle East runs counter to US economic interests." The initiative maintains that instability in oil and natural gas prices adversely affects the US and its allies, and that China's expansion into Europe through the Belt and Road Initiative poses a risk for the US. It aims to reorganize energy transport lines and trade routes in the Middle East, Caucasus, and Central Asia in favor of the US.
Four planned main corridors
The initiative envisages four main corridors:
- Gulf-Mediterranean Corridor: This line involves transferring Saudi, Kuwaiti, and UAE oil to Syria's Tartus port via Jordan, described as a project to revive the old Trans-Arabian Pipeline, thus creating an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.
- Iraq-Syria Corridor: It envisages rebuilding the Kirkuk-Banias oil pipeline, closed in 1979, with a capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day, reducing Iraq's dependence on the Basra terminal and economically linking Iraq and Syria.
- Caspian-Mediterranean Corridor: Adds a Syria connection to the existing route carrying Azerbaijani and Turkmen natural gas to Europe via Turkey through TANAP, thus planning an additional line to Syria through Turkey.
- Arab Gas Pipeline Modernization: Focuses on transporting Egyptian natural gas to Europe via Jordan, Syria, and Turkey.
First step on the Iraq-Syria line
According to Erkmen, the most feasible leg of the project currently is the Iraq-Syria Corridor. Erkmen noted that the US is actively using diplomatic pressure and economic tools to prevent a government close to Iran from taking office in Iraq, and that the new Iraqi government is openly supporting Washington's initiatives in the oil sector.
In the project report published in June, companies such as Chevron, Hunt Oil, HKN, ConocoPhillips, and Qatar Energy were listed as financiers, and Erkmen noted that these companies have made significant gains in Iraq over the past two months, have signed deals to operate natural gas and oil fields in Syria, and are playing a decisive role in the construction of the Kirkuk-Banias pipeline. He also pointed to the M4 international highway extending from Iraq to Syria.
Turkey's critical role
Erkmen pointed out that after Syria, Turkey is the second key country in the Four Seas Initiative. He stated that the Trump administration wants to use this project to reduce Iran's influence in the Persian Gulf and Iraq, as well as to block China's Belt and Road Initiative from reaching Europe. In this context, Turkey is positioned at the center of international transport lines from the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Erkmen stated that the Iraq-Turkey Development Road could be expanded to include northeastern Syria, making Turkey the critical intersection for natural gas pipelines reaching Europe in addition to road transport. These routes are expected to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas.
Chances of success and regional impacts
Erkmen described the likelihood of the project fully materializing as "virtually nonexistent," but said the effects already felt on Iraq and Syria show the initiative should be taken seriously. He noted that no state is willing to contribute financially, the Gulf countries' main market is Asia, and Saudi Arabia has alternative refineries on the Red Sea; therefore, not all four corridors are being activated simultaneously, but rather the Iraq-Syria leg is being prioritized.
