Associate Professor Erhan Akkaş of the Department of Economics at Ankara Social Sciences University assesses that Tehran is seeking to establish a new trade link that could reach Europe via the Black Sea through Armenia and Georgia. Rather than an option capable of disrupting Türkiye’s logistical position in the short term, the initiative is viewed as Iran’s search for access to alternative transport routes.
Infrastructure work on the corridor to the Black Sea
The North–South Highway Corridor, which begins at the Iranian border, is intended to extend north through Armenia and connect to the Black Sea via Georgia. The project aims to expand Iran’s access to different trade routes.
Construction continues on the 32-kilometre Kajaran–Agarak section in the southern part of the route, which includes two tunnels and 15 bridges. Physical progress had exceeded 40% as of February 2026, and Armenian authorities expect to complete the section in 2027.
A second bridge project linking Iran and Armenia across the Aras River was raised again in August 2026. The connection is expected to strengthen road transport between the two countries.
The lack of railways limits capacity
Several infrastructure problems stand in the way of Iran’s route to the Black Sea becoming an option on the same scale as existing transport networks. The absence of a direct railway connection between Iran and Armenia, along with the predominance of road transport, is among the main factors limiting the route’s capacity and speed.
Some road sections in Armenia require improvements to both their capacity and physical condition. Establishing a railway connection and upgrading the road infrastructure are considered decisive for giving the route greater freight capacity and faster transport.
Tehran seeks access to different trade directions
Following the Russia–Ukraine war, the security and continuity of Eurasian transport networks gained greater importance. Developments around the Strait of Hormuz also showed that trade and energy flows depend on specific transit points. This situation strengthened Iran’s search for links extending in different directions.
For this reason, Iran’s effort to reach the Black Sea through Armenia is not being considered solely in the context of competition with Türkiye. The initiative is viewed as an effort to create an alternative to existing routes and diversify Iran’s trade corridors.
Security emphasis in the TRIPP debate
On TRIPP, which Trump also calls the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, Iran emphasizes Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Tehran also voices concerns that the project should not be used for security purposes against Iran.
Armenia argues that TRIPP could create economic opportunities for Iran. The differing approaches show that Tehran evaluates new transport links not only for their economic consequences but also for their security implications.
How it differs from the Development Road
The Development Road Project, planned to connect the Persian Gulf with Europe, covers an approximately 1,200-kilometre road and railway network running from the Grand Faw Port through Iraq to the Turkish border. The project is expected to be implemented with an investment of approximately $17 billion.
While the Development Road is based on an integrated road and railway network, Iran’s Black Sea link includes maritime transport in the Black Sea alongside road transport through Armenia and Georgia. The Persian Gulf–Black Sea Corridor is designed as a multimodal structure bringing together links in Iran, Armenia, Georgia and Europe, which stands out as one of the main differences between the two initiatives.
For this reason, Iran’s Black Sea link is considered unlikely to compete with the Development Road on the same scale in the short term in terms of cost, speed and freight capacity. Nevertheless, the route represents a strategic option that could expand Iran’s access to different trade directions.
Transport competition is shaped by the full network of connections
Iran’s effort to reach the Black Sea through Armenia and Georgia is not considered to have developed into an alternative capable of changing Türkiye’s existing logistical position in the short term. Regional transport competition is expected to be shaped less by the capacity of individual corridors than by how different connections are linked to one another.
In this context, the development points less to a direct threat to Türkiye than to the need to diversify logistical capacity and international connections. An integrated logistics network linking railways, ports, border crossings and different international corridors would help Türkiye preserve its advantage.
