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- October 20, 202616°
- BIST10011,430-2.49%
- USD49.45+0.05%
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- INTEREST37.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN81,617-0.28%
- October 20, 202616°
Trump's South Asia balancing act strengthens Pakistan's hand
Tensions between Trump and India in the new era have increased Pakistan's diplomatic visibility in Washington. India, meanwhile, is trying to rebalance amid trade, tariffs, Iran-related energy pressure and regional tensions.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met at the G7 summit in France. In their first face-to-face contact since February 2025, Modi greeted Trump with a smile and a handshake instead of the usual embrace.
The two leaders also held a bilateral meeting on Wednesday. Although the meeting took place in a friendly atmosphere, relations between the two countries are moving forward under the shadow of tensions that have accumulated in recent months.
Pakistan's diplomatic space expands
India had long pursued a line aimed at isolating Pakistan internationally. However, recently Pakistan has become more visible at the regional and global levels, complicating that calculation.
Trump's announcement in May 2025 that a ceasefire had been achieved between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan was one of the clear signs of this transformation. The war had escalated over Indian-administered Kashmir and was recorded as the fiercest fighting in years.
Islamabad praised Trump for ending the conflict and raised the possibility of nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize. New Delhi, however, maintained that the ceasefire was achieved through direct bilateral contacts with Pakistan, not through third-party intervention.
This divergence once again revealed India's sensitivity to external interference on the Kashmir issue. New Delhi sees this matter strictly as a bilateral issue.
Tariffs and sanctions pressure strain relations
Relations became even more difficult in the following months. The Trump administration imposed some of the highest tariff rates among major economies on India.
During the same period, sanctions pressure on Russian oil strained India's energy imports, and debates over H-1B visas also heightened tensions. Analysts say Trump's "America First" approach has overshadowed the warm relationship Modi built during his first term.
Sid Dubey, a visiting professor at Bennett University in India, argued that New Delhi did not read the change in Trump's second term well enough. Dubey said India acted on the assumption that the previous closeness would continue.
According to Dubey, Trump's claim that the May conflict ended through his personal effort caused serious discomfort in India. The tariffs that followed further amplified that discomfort.
Iran war also affects India
India became one of the countries most affected by the indirect strategic shocks caused by the Iran war. Energy security and economic pressure were among New Delhi's top concerns.
Tensions rose when it was reported that three Indian sailors lost their lives as a side effect of the conflict in a U.S. attack last week. These individuals were the only sailors confirmed to have died as part of the U.S. blockade.
New Delhi then summoned Washington's chargé d'affaires ad interim Jason Meeks and expressed deep concern over the renewed attacks. India argued that its citizens were harmed in a war that was not their own.
The Indian government also warned that the conflict would have long-lasting humanitarian, economic and energy consequences. Even though the parties have reached an agreement, it is noted that these effects will take time to fully disappear.
Pakistan makes its Washington ties visible
During this process, Pakistan began to transform into an actor accepted in Washington while maintaining close ties with China, Iran and the Gulf countries. This dual visibility highlighted Islamabad's diplomatic agility.
Sadanand Dhume, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Pakistan's role in recent months shows it is conducting a more agile foreign policy than India. According to Dhume, Islamabad has neutralized India's plan to exclude Pakistan internationally.
Regional balances have also been reshaped by the two countries' different strategies. India deepened Quad cooperation with the U.S., Australia and Japan while increasing its contacts across South Asia; it took steps to expand relations with Afghanistan.
Pakistan, on the other hand, built stronger ties with China, improved relations with regional partners like Bangladesh, and increased security cooperation with Gulf countries.
Trump's praise strengthens Islamabad's hand
Trump had accused Pakistan of "deceit and lies" during his first term. However, recently he has frequently praised the Pakistani government and especially General Asim Munir.
In June 2025, Trump invited Asim Munir to lunch at the White House. Munir became the first non-civilian Pakistani army commander to be hosted by a U.S. president.
Trump used phrases like "my favorite marshal" and "an extraordinary person" for Munir. This closeness was also reflected in trade contacts and Pakistan's mediating role in diplomatic processes with Iran.
Dhume said Pakistan gained space in Washington thanks to concrete cooperation with the U.S. and open praise for Trump. According to him, this helped Pakistan rebuild its global perception.
India, meanwhile, maintained close ties with Israel while preferring to keep its messages more measured. After the agreement with Iran, Modi said in a statement that he hoped the deal would support peace and stability in the region and preserve freedom of navigation.
India tries to regain lost ground
Experts also emphasize that this picture does not have to be permanent. It is stated that Pakistan's current diplomatic momentum is not guaranteed to continue, and India also has the possibility of rebalancing.
Trump's laudatory words for Modi keep the possibility of a new thaw between the two countries on the agenda. Trump described Modi as "calm, cool and very tough" and said he might visit India in the future.
The U.S. President also said that if anyone attacks Modi, the U.S. would stand by him. The Indian government is also pushing for Trump to visit the country.
Nevertheless, tariffs, the Iran war, energy pressure and Pakistan's increased visibility have narrowed New Delhi's foreign policy space. India is trying to convince Washington that it is still a reliable partner.
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