The claim that U.S. financial support for the Peshmerga forces, worth up to $61 million annually, could end on September 30 has created new uncertainty over the security of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The U.S.-led international coalition against Daesh is also expected to end its mission in Iraq on the same date.
The KRG was targeted by numerous drone and missile attacks during the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran. Experts assessed the possible consequences of ending the aid program for Erbil’s security capacity and Washington-Erbil relations.
Erbil’s air defense concerns
Omar Al-Nidawi, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said the end of the aid program could deepen concerns in Erbil about Washington’s approach to its allies. Nidawi said Iraqi Kurdish leaders were following with concern assessments that the United States had abandoned the Syrian Kurds during the 2025-2026 conflicts.
According to Nidawi, the most urgent security issue for Iraqi Kurds is preserving air defense capabilities against drone and missile attacks by Iran and allied militias targeting the KRG. Nidawi said that if the withdrawal of U.S. troops also led to the loss of air defense systems, ending the Peshmerga aid program could leave the KRG more vulnerable to attacks and increase pressure on Erbil to meet Iran’s demands.
Peshmerga aid not seen as a permanent arrangement
Hamzeh Hadad, a member of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, said he did not expect the end of the aid program to bring about a fundamental change in relations between the United States and Iraqi Kurdistan. Hadad said Peshmerga support had never represented a long-term security arrangement.
Hadad said a possible cutoff could force the KRG to address security reform more seriously and increase coordination with Iraqi security forces. Saying that the U.S. presence and support had not prevented attacks on the KRG by Iran or armed groups in Iraq, Hadad argued that reduced U.S. involvement could lessen the justifications used to target the KRG.
Possible dependence on Baghdad
Paul Iddon, a journalist who writes about the KRG and the Middle East, said the consequences of suspending Peshmerga support would not necessarily be negative. Iddon said the aid had been provided as part of the U.S.-led coalition’s mission against Daesh and had never been expected to be a permanent arrangement.
Recalling that the coalition’s combat mission officially ended in December 2021, Iddon said the development was not sudden. However, saying the timing was concerning for Erbil, Iddon noted that the KRG could become more dependent on Baghdad to finance units under the Peshmerga Ministry.
Coalition withdrawal could have a greater security impact
Iddon said the withdrawal of coalition forces could have a greater short-term security impact than the cutoff of Peshmerga aid. He said American and British air defense systems had provided important protection against drone and missile attacks targeting Erbil during the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran, adding that most of these systems had been withdrawn.
Iddon said these systems had never provided the KRG with comprehensive strategic defense, adding that Peshmerga members targeted by missiles had been killed during the war and that the residences of KRG leaders had been targeted by drones repeatedly.
Iddon also alleged that coalition forces had been unable or unwilling to defend Erbil against missile attacks carried out by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in March 2022 and April 2024. Saying that a U.S. withdrawal was unlikely to reduce attacks on the KRG by Iran and Iraqi militias, Iddon assessed that U.S. or coalition fighter jets operating from bases outside Iraq could intervene against drones targeting the region in the future.
Search for a new security framework in relations
Iddon said the development could signal a new transition in U.S.-KRG relations and that the parties could operate under a different security framework in the future. Describing the construction of a large U.S. consulate in Erbil as an indication of continuing ties, Iddon said a potential power vacuum in Iraq was concerning for the KRG.
