Energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz contracted sharply after the US-Israel war with Iran began. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration data, 21.6 million barrels of oil passed through the strait each day in the fourth quarter of 2025, but that figure fell to 4.9 million barrels in the second quarter of 2026.
The decline in LNG flows was more pronounced. Daily LNG shipments fell from 10.5 billion cubic feet to 800 million cubic feet over the same period, representing a 77% decline in oil shipments and a 92% decline in LNG flows.
One-fifth of global LNG supply passes through Hormuz
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum says that approximately one-fifth of the world's LNG supply is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates use this maritime route for LNG exports.
The global LNG market also contracted significantly between March and June as the conflict escalated. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum estimated that more than 300 LNG cargoes from Qatar and approximately 20 from the United Arab Emirates could not be shipped during this period.
Both oil tankers and LNG carriers declined in Hormuz
Weekly records from London-based maritime data and analytics company Clarksons Research highlighted the difference between the two types of transportation. During the week of June 21-27, 66 crude oil tankers and 16 LNG carriers passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
During the week of August 23-29, the number of crude oil tankers passing through the strait fell to four, while no LNG carrier transit was recorded.
Alternative routes offset part of the decline in oil shipments. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Saudi Arabia's decision to divert some of its oil through the East-West Petroline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu also played a role. Daily oil flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait rose from 5.4 million barrels in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 8.1 million barrels in the second quarter of 2026.
No alternative maritime outlet for Qatari LNG
Mehdy Touil, a senior LNG specialist at Calypso Commodities, said oil and LNG shipments differ in terms of infrastructure and operations. Touil said oil has access to a larger and more flexible tanker fleet as well as greater storage capacity, while LNG transportation does not offer the same flexibility.
Touil said LNG carriers, which are specially designed for cryogenic transport, face different insurance risks, adding that the LNG sector has a lower risk tolerance than other hydrocarbons. He said the concentration of Qatar's LNG export infrastructure in a specific area was also a significant constraint.
Touil said Qatar's LNG export system is concentrated in Ras Laffan and that the country's seaborne LNG exports have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He stressed that there is no alternative maritime outlet for Qatari LNG.
A cargo's route can be changed, but the export infrastructure Qatar developed over decades cannot be rerouted.
Touil said it would be difficult for other producers to quickly make up for the loss of LNG supplies through Hormuz. He said most of the world's liquefaction facilities are operating at maximum capacity and that developing new LNG export facilities takes several years.
Security risks weigh more heavily on LNG carriers
Fabio Reale, head of Clarksons LNG Analysis, said the lower cost of oil tankers compared with LNG tankers could influence shipowners' approach to risk. Reale said oil tanker owners may be more willing than LNG carrier owners to assume the risks of transiting Hormuz.
Reale said some additional war-risk insurance premiums are calculated based on the value of the vessel, adding that LNG carrier owners do not want to take on the security risks in the region. He said the risk of damage caused by attacks and mines would need to decline significantly for LNG traffic to recover.
LNG flows unlikely to return to prewar levels
Francesco Sassi, a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, said the conflict had increased risks to maritime traffic and energy production infrastructure. Sassi said Gulf countries were relying on their own capabilities to secure energy cargoes and that security and geopolitical factors were having a growing impact on oil, LNG and other commodity markets.
Sassi said that under current conditions, it would be very difficult for LNG shipments to return to prewar levels. He said forecasts about when energy flows would stabilize carried a high degree of uncertainty, adding that oil has more alternative transportation infrastructure than LNG, including pipelines.
Sassi said he did not expect oil flows to return to prewar levels soon and did not foresee a rapid recovery in LNG shipments.
