Israel’s parliamentary election on October 27 will take place amid political debates linked to the Gaza war, regional conflicts and the representation of Palestinian citizens in parliament. The election will also be a critical contest for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future.
The vote will determine the 120-member 26th Knesset. Netanyahu’s government will remain in office until the election concludes and a new government is formed, following the dissolution of parliament on July 17.
Palestinian parties to contest the election on two lists
Hadash, Balad and Ta’al have announced that they will form a joint list to strengthen the representation and participation of Palestinian citizens in the election. Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, did not join the alliance. Palestinian parties will therefore contest the election on two separate lists.
Palestinian citizens account for approximately 20 percent of Israel’s population. However, their representation in the Knesset is affected by divisions among the parties and lower voter turnout.
Hadash, Balad, Ta’al and Ra’am formed the Joint List in 2015 and won 13 seats, while the alliance reached its strongest result in 2020 with 15 seats. Subsequent disagreements led to the alliance breaking apart, and the parties currently hold a total of 10 seats.
Polls project that Palestinian parties could win a total of 11 seats. If neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the Jewish opposition secures a majority, this result could give Palestinian lawmakers an influential position in the decision-making process.
Most Jewish opposition leaders have said they will not form a government dependent on Palestinian lawmakers. Ra’am, however, joined the Bennett-Lapid coalition in 2021, helping the government secure a majority in parliament.
Coalition arithmetic at the heart of the electoral system
All of Israel is treated as a single electoral district, and lawmakers are elected through a nationwide proportional representation system. Voters do not directly elect the prime minister or individual candidates; they vote for closed party lists determined before the election.
Parties must receive at least 3.25 percent of the valid vote to enter the Knesset. Lists that fail to reach this threshold win no seats, and the votes they receive are not included in the seat allocation calculation.
The 120 seats are distributed among lists that clear the threshold according to their share of the vote. After the initial calculation, the remaining seats are allocated using the Bader-Ofer method. Parties can also form surplus-vote agreements to combine their unused votes and obtain additional seats.
No party in Israel has so far won the 61 seats required for a majority on its own. For this reason, the decisive factor in forming a government is not necessarily the party that finishes first, but the creation of a coalition capable of securing a majority.
The president assigns the task of forming a government
The leader of the party receiving the most votes does not automatically become prime minister. After the official results are announced, the president consults the parties entering the Knesset, and each party recommends one lawmaker to form the government.
The president assigns the task to the lawmaker considered most likely to form a government. This person does not have to be the leader of the largest party. The first candidate appointed has 28 days to complete coalition talks, a period that can be extended by up to 14 days.
The talks address the distribution of ministries, government policies, legislation and the budget shares requested by coalition partners. If the first candidate fails, the president can give another lawmaker 28 days.
If this effort also fails, 61 lawmakers can, within 21 days, request that a specified candidate be given the final 14-day mandate to form a government. If no government is formed by the end of the process, a new election must be held.
Netanyahu’s rivals and potential partners
Netanyahu, the leader of Likud, the main party of Israel’s right, is running for another term as prime minister. His potential partners include Itamar Ben-Gvir’s far-right Otzma Yehudit party, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party, and the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism.
Former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, who served as prime minister in 2021-2022, are among Netanyahu’s main rivals. Eisenkot leads Yashar, a centrist party. Bennett heads the Unity alliance he formed with former Prime Minister Yair Lapid.
The alliance aims to bring together Bennett’s support among nationalist and religious voters with Lapid’s predominantly centrist and secular base. The opposition also includes Avigdor Lieberman’s right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party and the Democrats, led by former deputy chief of staff Yair Golan.
Although the parties opposed to Netanyahu share the goal of removing him from office, they do not form an ideologically unified bloc. Differences over relations with Palestinians, the Gaza war, the establishment of a Palestinian state, religion-state relations and cooperation with Palestinian parties could make it difficult to form an alternative government.
Small parties could change the majority calculation
The 3.25 percent electoral threshold makes small parties crucial to both the governing and opposition camps. A list that falls just below the threshold cannot be represented in parliament, while a party that narrowly clears it can win approximately four seats.
If either Smotrich’s Religious Zionism Party or Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit fails to cross the threshold, Netanyahu could lose the seats he needs for a majority. The same calculation applies to opposition parties because votes that fall below the threshold are not transferred to other ideologically similar lists.
Shas and United Torah Judaism could occupy a decisive position in coalition talks. The ultra-Orthodox parties use their key role in coalitions to secure policy and budget demands for their voters.
Eisenkot leads in the polls
A poll published Sunday by the Israel Public Broadcasting Corporation projected 51 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 57 for Eisenkot’s camp and 12 for Palestinian parties. The previous poll had projected 52 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc.
According to the poll, Eisenkot’s Yashar party could become the largest party with 24 seats. Likud was projected to win 22 seats, while Bennett’s Unity alliance was projected to win 14.
In the ranking of preferred candidates for prime minister, Eisenkot led Netanyahu with 41 percent support to Netanyahu’s 35 percent. Bennett also moved ahead of Netanyahu for the first time, by 37 percent to 36 percent.
Gaza war and military service exemptions on the agenda
The election is expected to serve as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership, the government’s security performance and its handling of the Gaza war and other regional conflicts. Netanyahu is expected to emphasize his experience and argue that he is the strongest candidate against Iran and its regional allies.
The opposition will focus on the government’s failures in the security sphere, its handling of the Gaza war and the failure to establish an official state commission of inquiry.
Exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men will also be one of the election’s major disputes. Shas and United Torah Judaism are demanding legislation that preserves exemptions for students at religious schools. Reservists and other Israelis argue that the burden of military service is not shared equally.
This dispute creates a political problem for Netanyahu, who needs the support of ultra-Orthodox parties. Netanyahu will also seek to retain Likud voters who support broader participation in military service.
The history of coalition politics
Coalition negotiations have been decisive in forming Israeli governments since the first parliamentary election in 1949. Although Mapai, the predecessor of the Labor Party, dominated politics during the first three decades, it formed coalitions with religious and smaller parties.
The 1977 election marked a turning point when Likud ended nearly 30 years of Labor-led rule. After the inconclusive 1984 election, a national unity government was formed between Likud and the Labor-led Alignment. Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir agreed to rotate the premiership, serving two years each.
Israel experimented with a system in which the prime minister was elected directly in 1996, 1999 and 2001. However, the model was abolished because it failed to eliminate dependence on coalitions and increased fragmentation within the party system.
Netanyahu returned as prime minister in 2009 and led coalitions made up of varying combinations of nationalist, religious, centrist and ultra-Orthodox parties until 2021. Between April 2019 and November 2022, Israel held five elections because rival blocs struggled to form or maintain a government.
Netanyahu and centrist leader Benny Gantz formed a government in 2020 that provided for a rotating premiership. However, the government collapsed before Gantz took over as prime minister.
In 2021, Bennett and Lapid formed an ideologically diverse coalition that included right-wing, centrist and left-wing parties, as well as Ra’am, which represents Palestinian citizens. Bennett served as prime minister first, after which the position passed to Lapid, and parliament was dissolved in 2022.
Netanyahu returned as prime minister after forming a coalition with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties following the November 2022 election. The October 27 election will be held after the first Knesset since 1988 to complete a four-year term.
