As the Iran war intensifies again, Gulf Arab states are relying more on Beijing's economic clout than on Washington to secure the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. According to regional sources speaking to Reuters, this shift is testing China's willingness and capability to pressure Tehran.
According to three separate regional sources, Gulf countries sought help from Beijing after Iran and its allies threatened the Bab el-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. The sources indicate that the war has exposed the limits of American power.
China is a major oil buyer from both the Gulf and Iran, and as Tehran's largest trading partner, it has opportunities. A Gulf source said, "There is great respect between the Gulf and China, and they are a major trading partner, so every issue is raised very quietly."
China's Middle East policy constrained by great power rivalry
Since the 2022 Gulf-China summit, China has developed close trade and investment ties with the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. However, Beijing has avoided openly challenging Tehran's threats to maritime shipping, raising doubts about how far China is prepared to go to secure the Gulf and its own exports.
A second Gulf source said, "The Chinese are trying to get more involved, they are trying to help more," and added: "But it turns out China is not as effective as we thought. Whether this is a lack of will or a lack of capacity is debatable. It seems that when America steps in, superpower calculations take precedence over everything."
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held dozens of phone calls and meetings in search of a new ceasefire, while special envoy Zhai Jun held talks in Gulf capitals and Tehran. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said, "China has maintained close communication with all parties and has consistently worked to stop the fighting and promote peace."
China and other countries balance their interests
China has leveraged its deep economic ties to advance its Middle East diplomacy, having brokered a surprising diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023. That process is now being tested. Beijing is also pressing Pakistan to mediate the resumption of peace talks between Washington and Tehran.
Meanwhile, China held direct talks with the Houthis in Yemen to ensure its tankers could pass through the southern Red Sea without attack, amid threats from the Iran-aligned Houthis to block access to Saudi ports. Six sources close to the matter confirmed this to Reuters this week; China's Ministry of Transport did not respond to a request for comment.
Anna Borshchevskaya of the Washington Institute noted that the narrow bilateral arrangements protecting China-linked shipping are the only visible result of diplomatic efforts so far, saying, "Beyond that, it is difficult to see what else China has been able to accomplish – or is willing to accomplish."
Unlike the United States, China has no defense commitment in the Gulf, no military mandate to protect regional waterways, and no appetite to assume such a role. Beijing states it is not ready to use military force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and does not believe other parties can do so either. Instead, it calls for diplomacy and dialogue to secure international maritime routes.
