Italy has proposed establishing a new dialogue to bring Egypt and Ethiopia together in Rome over their dispute regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said at a press conference with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty in Cairo in early September that Italy was ready to help resolve the crisis.
Tajani said Rome could use its good relations with Ethiopia in the search for a solution. The Italian minister said that, if Egypt and Ethiopia requested it, they could help facilitate the establishment of dialogue between the two countries in Rome in the coming weeks.
Messages from Washington and Beijing
Italy's proposal came after US mediation efforts aimed at restarting negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia. In a letter sent to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in January, US President Donald Trump said Washington could resume its mediation role and help secure a final and fair solution to the crisis.
Trump reiterated during a meeting with el-Sisi in June that he would mediate to end the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis. In a joint statement issued on September 2 during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Cairo, China supported Egypt's right to protect its water security and called on Nile Basin countries to abide by international law.
Egypt and Ethiopia fail to agree on a binding deal
The dispute stems from the water-management problem that emerged after Ethiopia began constructing a dam on the Blue Nile River in 2011. Egypt wants a legally binding agreement on the filling and operation of the dam that would safeguard its water security.
Talks among Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia resumed in 2023 after a three-year suspension, but negotiations were suspended again in 2024. Cairo and Khartoum are seeking trilateral, legally binding rules governing the filling and operation of the dam.
Addis Ababa argues that a binding agreement is not necessary for operating the dam and says it does not intend to harm the interests of other countries. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty also said on August 20 that Egypt opposed Ethiopia's construction of new dams on the Nile River, stressing the country's right to defend its interests and water security.
Egyptian experts point to Rome's position
Hossam Moghazi, one of Egypt's former ministers of water resources and irrigation and the former head of the technical delegation in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam negotiations, said the United States and Italy were seeking to ease tensions in the crisis. Moghazi said statements by Ethiopian officials about building new dams and controlling water had caused concern in downstream countries such as Egypt and Sudan.
Moghazi said Italy had good relations with both Egypt and Ethiopia, adding that Rome could serve as a negotiating partner capable of bringing the parties' positions closer together. He argued that Ethiopia could welcome the Italian initiative as a way to improve its external reputation and demonstrate that it was approaching the negotiations seriously, and said the outcome of the process would become clear in the coming weeks.
Salah Halime, deputy chairman of the Egyptian Council for African Affairs, argued that China's messages, Italy's initiative and Trump's statements had created strong pressure on Ethiopia. Halime said the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis could be resolved within a few months if Ethiopia showed political will, and that the solution should be based on shared interests and respect for international law.
Halime also said the increase in mediation initiatives showed that the international community believed the crisis needed to be addressed seriously and decisively. He argued that Egypt could appeal to the United Nations and the Security Council if Ethiopia rejected negotiations, and said that relevant provisions of the UN Charter could come into play if the peaceful process failed.
Ethiopia's official position remains undisclosed
Ethiopian political analyst Abdushakur Abdussamed said the success of mediation efforts by Italy and the United States depended on the parties not putting forward conditions that would derail the negotiations. Abdussamed said it was important for Ethiopia to limit the talks to the filling and operation of the dam, while issues such as fixing or increasing water allocations should not be addressed.
Ethiopia has not announced its official position on the mediation proposals from Italy and the United States. Abdussamed said Addis Ababa could in principle agree to the resumption of negotiations, but believed that Egypt attached greater importance to US mediation and that Washington had instruments of pressure at its disposal.
Egypt's annual share of water from the Nile River is given as approximately 55.5 billion cubic meters. The Nile Basin, which stretches for approximately 6,650 kilometers, includes 11 countries: Burundi, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan, Sudan and Egypt.
