U.S. support for Peshmerga forces could heighten Erbil’s security concerns

The United States may end its annual financial support of up to $61 million for Peshmerga forces in Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government on September 30. Experts say the potential withdrawal of coalition forces could affect Erbil’s air defenses, relations with Baghdad and regional security.

Erbil’s security concerns could grow if U.S. support for Peshmerga ends

The future of U.S. financial support for Peshmerga forces in Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has moved to the forefront of Erbil’s security agenda. The possibility that aid worth up to $61 million annually could end on September 30 has heightened concerns over how security ties between Washington and the KRG will take shape.

The potential end of the support comes as the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS is expected to complete its mission in Iraq. Experts say the development could usher in a new security framework for relations between the United States and the KRG.

Air defense is a priority for Erbil

Omar Al-Nidawi, an expert at the Atlantic Council, said the possibility of aid being cut could increase concerns about how Washington will continue to view Erbil as an ally. According to Al-Nidawi, the KRG’s most urgent security need is to strengthen its air-defense capabilities against drone and missile attacks.

Al-Nidawi said the withdrawal of U.S. systems, together with the end of the aid program, could leave the KRG more vulnerable to attacks. He said the Kurdistan Regional Government could face greater pressure from Iran’s demands, including over the presence of Kurdish opposition groups in the region.

Aid is not viewed as a permanent security solution

Hamzeh Hadad, an expert at the Washington-based Center for a New American Security, said he did not expect the relationship between the United States and the KRG to change fundamentally. Hadad said Iraq’s Kurdish parties needed the United States more than Washington needed them.

Hadad said U.S. aid to the Peshmerga had never been a long-term security arrangement and that its end could compel the KRG to take security reform more seriously. He said this could also increase coordination with security forces linked to the central government in Baghdad.

Hadad also argued that the U.S. presence and support had not prevented attacks by Iran and armed groups in Iraq. He said a more limited U.S. intervention could reduce the justifications for targeting the KRG.

Baghdad’s role in funding the Peshmerga could grow

Paul Iddon, a journalist based in Erbil, said the end of Peshmerga aid would not necessarily produce negative consequences. Iddon said the support had been provided as part of the winding-down mission against ISIS and was not intended to be permanent.

Iddon said KRG officials were also aware of this situation and recalled that the coalition’s combat mission officially ended in December 2021. At the same time, he said the Erbil administration was struggling to pay public employees’ salaries on time and could become more dependent on Baghdad to fund forces under the Peshmerga Ministry.

Coalition withdrawal could have a greater short-term impact

Iddon said the withdrawal of coalition forces from the region could have a greater short-term impact on KRG security than the end of the aid. He said American and British air-defense systems had practically protected Erbil from drone and missile attacks during the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, but most of those systems had now been withdrawn from the region.

Iddon said these systems had never provided the KRG with strategic defense and that Peshmerga members had been killed in missile attacks during the war. He said the residences of KRG leaders had also been targeted by drones repeatedly.

Iddon said coalition forces had either been unable or unwilling to protect Erbil against missile attacks carried out by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in 2022 and 2024. He said a U.S. withdrawal could reduce attacks by Iran and Iraqi militias against the KRG, but that this should not be regarded as a certain outcome.

Iddon said U.S. and coalition warplanes could continue to intervene from bases outside Iraq from time to time against Iraqi militias and Iranian drones targeted in the region. He said relations between the United States and the KRG had entered a new transitional period and that the parties could operate under a new security framework in the future.

Iddon described the recent construction of the United States’ largest consulate building in Erbil as a development indicating that relations were continuing. He added that a potential power vacuum in Iraq was concerning for the KRG.