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- October 25, 202614°
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- October 25, 202614°
Israeli election polls leave Netanyahu's bloc short of a Knesset majority
Two polls published Friday ahead of Tuesday’s parliamentary elections in Israel showed Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition camp with 52 seats and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc with 50. Neither main camp is expected to reach the 61 seats needed to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset.
The two main camps in Israel’s election race fell short of the majority needed to form a government in the latest opinion polls. Two polls released Friday showed the opposition camp led by Gadi Eisenkot with 52 seats and the bloc of incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with 50.
Polls by Israel’s public broadcaster KAN and private television channel Channel 12 showed a similar distribution of Knesset seats ahead of Tuesday’s parliamentary elections. A party or bloc needs 61 seats to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset.
Key results in the party distribution
Channel 12’s projection put Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party in first place with 22 seats. Likud was projected to win 20 seats, while former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Together party was projected to win 14.
Jewish Power, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir; Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman; and the Democrats party, led by Yair Golan, were each expected to win eight seats.
The Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance was projected to win nine seats, Shas seven, United Torah Judaism eight and the United Arab List five. The Hadash–Ta’al alliance was projected to win eight seats, while the Hendel–Zelekha alliance was projected to win four.
Under this distribution, Eisenkot’s camp would have 52 seats, Netanyahu’s bloc 50, Arab parties 14 and the Hendel–Zelekha alliance four.
KAN’s poll also projected Yashar with 22 seats, Likud with 20 and Bennett’s Together party with 14. The Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, Jewish Power and United Torah Judaism were each projected to win eight seats, while Shas and the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance were each projected to win seven.
KAN projected the joint list of Hadash, Ta’al and Balad to win nine seats and the United Arab List five. The Reservists Party and the Economy Party were each expected to win four seats. In this poll, too, Netanyahu’s bloc had 50 seats and Eisenkot’s camp 52.
Differences between the two polls
The most notable difference between the two polls concerned the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance’s projected seat total. Channel 12 gave the alliance nine seats, while KAN gave it seven.
The joint list of Hadash, Ta’al and Balad was projected to win nine seats in KAN’s poll, while Channel 12 projected eight seats for the Hadash–Ta’al alliance. Netanyahu’s bloc, which had won 51 seats in KAN’s poll the previous week, fell by one seat, while Eisenkot’s camp remained at 52. Likud and Yashar each lost one seat, while Bennett’s party gained two, rising to 14.
Leadership preferences and voter turnout
In KAN’s survey on who was best suited to serve as prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and Bennett reached the same level of support, 38% each, for the first time since late August. In the previous poll, Netanyahu led Bennett by 38% to 34%.
Eisenkot led Netanyahu by 44% to 38%. In a head-to-head scenario between Eisenkot and Bennett, their support levels were 35% and 22%, respectively. Forty-three percent of respondents considered neither of the two suitable to lead the government.
Seventy-one percent of respondents said they were certain to vote. The figure was 80% among opposition supporters and 75% among supporters of the governing coalition. The share of voters who had not made up their minds rose to 36%, compared with 30% in the previous poll.
Security assessment and government scenarios
Fifty-eight percent of respondents rated Israel’s security situation as poor, while 37% rated it as good. The share describing the security situation as poor reached 73% among opposition supporters, compared with 28% among governing coalition supporters.
In a scenario where Eisenkot’s camp led Netanyahu’s but failed to reach 61 seats, 27% of respondents supported a unity government and 27% favored holding another election. Twenty-six percent preferred a minority government formed by the change camp if Arab parties did not vote against it.
Forty-seven percent of governing coalition supporters favored another election, while 45% of opposition supporters backed a minority government. Both polls showed that neither main camp could reach the 61-seat majority on its own.
Restrictions on publishing polls
Israeli law restricts the publication of new election polls from the end of the Friday before an election until the polls close. The Israel Democracy Institute says the restriction, adopted in 2007, aims to prevent the public from being misled and influenced by polls shortly before an election.
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